Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *JAMES MADISON (-21)  35   Texas State  7

James Madison opened the season with a 44-7 win over a Middle Tennessee State team that just won at Miami-Florida then, after beating Norfolk State 63-7, they won on the road as a big dog against a good Appalachian State team that lost by just 2 points to North Carolina and won at Texas A&M.

James Madison is playing their first season at the FBS level, and I rated the Dukes higher than most entering the season (I had them just 5 points worse than an average FBS team) and they have been much better than I had expected. They should have beaten Appalachian State by more than 4 points, as JMU outgained the Mountaineers by 118 total yards and 5.9 yards per play to 4.8 yppl, so there has been nothing fluky about their torrid start. I don’t think the Dukes are as good as they’ve been so far (0.1 yppl better than average on offense and 1.7 yppl better than average defensively) but they should beat up on a horrible Texas State team that will be fortunate to score in double-digits.

The Bobcats have averaged only 4.8 yards per play despite facing 4 teams that would allow 7.1 yppl to an average FBS offense. They managed to average 37.5 points against FIU (the worst defensive team in FBS) and Houston Christian (just as bad as FIU’s defense) but averaging just 6.1 yppl against two teams that would allow 8.7 yppl to an average FBS offense is really bad. Texas State managed just 14 points and 3.1 yppl against a Nevada defense that is 0.6 yppl worse than average and scored just 7 points against Baylor. The James Madison defense has held worse than average offensive teams Middle Tennessee and Norfolk (who is 0.9 yppl better offensively than Texas State) to just 7 points apiece and they held a very good Appalachian State attack to only 298 yards at 4.8 yppl. The Dukes have an incredibly good run defense (allowed just 54 run yards per game at 2.0 yards per rushing play), so Texas State certainly won’t be able to run the ball (they’re 1.6 yprp worse than average), and the Bobcats’ horrible aerial attack (5.4 yppp against teams that would allow 8.6 yppp to an average FBS team) will struggle to throw the ball in the bad conditions (rain likely with some wind) against a better than average JMU pass defense.

James Madison, meanwhile, is well-suited for the inclement weather, as they like to run the ball (246 yards per game at 5.6 yprp) and Texas State doesn’t defend the run well (5.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average only 4.3 yprp against an average defense). The Bobcats have only faced one better than average running team and they gave up 282 ground yards at 7.6 yprp to Baylor.

With this being their first season at the FBS level I don’t think that James Madison is going to take any game lightly, which is often the case with huge favorites, and the Dukes should score enough points by simply running the ball given the good field position that their defense will supply them by shutting down a pathetic Texas State offense. James Madison is a 1-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less (at -115 odds or better).