Texas vs

Georgia

at New Orleans
Tue, Jan 1
5:45 PM Pacific
Rotation: 277
Odds: Georgia -11.5, Total: 58.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Georgia (-11.5)  37   Texas  18

This game comes down to motivation. Some are speculating that Georgia is disappointed to be playing in this game after feeling that they were one of the nation’s 4 best teams and should have been in the playoffs (both true) after barely losing to #1 Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Others feel that Georgia wants to send a message with a dominating performance to prove that they should have been a playoff team. It’s hard to know how Georgia’s players are feeling about this game or how focused they were in preparation. I do know that Georgia will destroy Texas if they prepared well for this game.

I looked up how teams that finished 5th and 6th in the final playoff ratings have done in bowl games and such teams favored by more than 3 points in their bowl game are 4-0 ATS and last season I had a winning Best Bet on Ohio State over USC after the Buckeyes finished 5th and felt they should have been a playoff team. In 2014 TCU went from 3rd in the penultimate rankings, won their final game, and ended up 6th in the final ratings. I remember the same speculation about TCU not being psyched for their bowl game because of the letdown of not making the playoffs. Instead, TCU won their bowl game 42-3 as a 3 ½ point favorite over a good Ole’ Miss team to prove that the committee was wrong not to include them. I’ll just assume Georgia plays at their normal level, which should be more than enough to win this game by two touchdowns or more.

Texas is not really that impressive from the line of scrimmage, as the Longhorns averaged just 5.7 yards per play and allowed 5.8 yppl this season while rating at 0.2 yppl better than average offensively with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback (he missed parts of two games) and 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (that 5.8 yppl allowed was against a schedule of teams that would average 6.4 yppl against an average defensive team). Georgia, meanwhile, outgained their opponents 7.3 yppl to 4.9 yppl and their average opponent has been 0.2 yppl better than Texas from the line of scrimmage. The Bulldogs are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation, rating at 2.2 yards per play better than average when quarterback Jake Fromm is in the game (I doubt that backup Justin Fields will play given that he’s rumored to be transferring), and the math model projects 460 yards at 7.25 yards per play for the Bulldogs in this game.

Georgia’s defense, rating at 1.4 yards per play better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.3 yppl against an average team) should have no trouble limiting the Longhorns’ mediocre offense. Texas is a worse than average running team (0.4 yprp worse than average) and Ehlinger is 0.2 yppp worse than the average quarterback that Georgia faced this season. The Bulldogs allowed just 4.9 yards per pass play to that good group of opposing passers and the only team that was able to average more than 5.9 yards per pass play against them was Alabama, who managed just 6.25 yppp despite having a historically good quarterback. The math model projects just 294 yards at 4.5 yards per play for Texas.

I’m well aware that Texas head coach Tom Herman has an excellent 12-2 ATS mark as an underdog but the Longhorns haven’t faced a team that is great on both sides of the ball. Texas only faced 4 better than average defensive teams this season (Maryland, USC, TCU, and Iowa State) and they averaged 5.3 yards per play against those teams, which is only 0.4 yppl better than the 4.9 yppl an average offensive team would have tallied against those teams and only 0.2 yppl better than their overall offensive rating. Texas had 3 games against elite offensive teams, facing West Virginia and Oklahoma twice, and the Longhorns allowed an average of 42 points and 8.0 yards per play in those 3 games, which is 0.5 yppl better than what an average defensive would have allowed and 0.1 yppl worse than their overall defensive rating. So, while Texas has been good as an underdog they really aren’t any better from a yardage perspective against better defenses and elite offensive teams.

In addition to their significant advantage from the line of scrimmage Georgia also has better special teams units and is less likely to turn the ball over. That math model predicts Georgia to win by 20 points, which isn’t that unrealistic considering that the Bulldogs’ average scoring margin is +18.6 points and Texas is 0.2 yppl worse than the average team that they faced. This game qualifies as a Best Bet based solely on the math but there is a chance that the Bulldogs aren’t as excited to be back in the Sugar Bowl as I hope they are so I’ll consider Georgia a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texas
  • Georgia
TEX
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 37.2 32.2
  • Run Yards 154.2 139.2
  • YPRP 4.6 4.8




Pass





  • Pass Comp 22.3 21.4
  • Pass Att 34.5 35.2
  • Comp % 64.7% 60.7%
  • Pass Yards 264.5 264.9
  • Sacks 1.9 2.3
  • Sack Yards 15.7 14.6
  • Sack % 5.3% 6.2%
  • Pass Plays 36.4 37.5
  • Net Pass Yards 248.8 250.2
  • YPPP 6.8 6.7

Total

  • Total Plays 73.5 69.7
  • Total Yards 418.6 404.0
  • YPPL 5.7 5.8

TO


  • Int 0.5 0.9
  • Int % 1.3% 2.4%
  • Fumbles 0.4 0.5
  • Turnovers 0.8 1.4
 
  • Points 31.3 26.2
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