Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *USC Team Total Over (24 -115)

Or

Strong Opinion USC (+3.5) and Strong Opinion Over (52.5)

Southern California (+3.5)  30   Texas A&M  29

USC is easily the best 6-6 team in the nation, as Trojans lost 5 of their games by 7 points or less (leading in the 4th quarter in most of those) while their other loss was by 14 points to Notre Dame in a game in which they had two balls intercepted at the Notre Dame endzone that were both returned for touchdowns. USC rated at 1.6 yards per play better than average while Texas A&M has been 1.3 yppl better than average (+1.5 yppl with Reed at QB). The Trojans were the better team from the line of scrimmage in the regular season but overall the math model would have favored A&M by 0.3 points (with Reed at QB for the Aggies) before adjusting for opt outs and transfers. Those adjustments favor USC and the market adjusted the opposite direction, which I believe gives us value on the Trojans.

The USC offense was 1.3 yppl better than average this season, averaging 6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. Jayden Maiava took over for Miller Moss at quarterback for the final 3 regular season games and Moss has transferred. The two were nearly identical in compensated yards per pass play and interception rate. Wide receivers Branch, Hudson, and Robinson have all left the team, but that could be a plus. Those 3 combined for 1361 yards at an average of 7.1 yards per target and a 44% success rate while the rest of the wide receivers combined for 1429 yards at 8.55 YPT and a 51% success rate. I didn’t make a positive adjustment for the receiver group, although there is some evidence that they might be better off without the departed trio. Top two running backs Marks and Joyner are also not playing in this game, and the Trojans will also be down 2 offensive line starters. USC has plenty of talent at receiver and the running backs and offensive linemen combine to be worth only 2.3 points in my estimation.

The Texas A&M defense was 0.7 yppl better than average in the regular season (5.5 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would average 6.2 yppl against an average defense) but that unit will be without 3 starting defensive linemen that have opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. I value those losses at 3.1 points.

The Texas A&M offense was 0.5 yppl better than average against FBS teams this season (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack) but they were better with Marcel Reed at quarterback, as he was a better passer than opening day starter Conner Weigman as well as being a more dangerous runner (555 yards on 84 runs). The absence of WR Cyrus Allen is not an issue, as his 39% success rate on his 33 targets was the worst among all wide receivers. However, the loss of top RB Le’Veon Moss does hurt the attack, as Moss’s 6.1 ypr on 112 runs against FBS opposition is much better than the rest of the running backs. Amari Daniels was next best at 4.6 ypr against FBS teams and he’ll get the bulk of the work. The run offense has been 0.4 yprp worse (compensated for opposing defenses) in the 3 games Moss missed at the end of the season. A&M still rates at 0.5 yppl better than average with Reed at QB and without Moss (worth 1.3 points).

USC’s defense was 0.3 yppl better than average in the regular season and I don’t think they’ll be much worse for this game. Losing CB Jaylin Smith is a bit of a blow, but the Trojans are getting back their best defensive player, LB Eric Gentry, who led the team with 6.5 total tackles for loss (2 of them sacks) in just 4 games before sitting out the rest of the regular season with a concussion. He could have come back earlier but they want to redshirt him and now he can play since bowl games do not affect the redshirt status. Gentry has been practicing with the team and has hinted that he’ll play. I won’t upgrade the defense because of Gentry, since it’s unknown how much he’ll play, but losing Smith is only worth 1.0 points.

I favor the underrated Trojans by 0.9 points, with 59.1 total points (adjusted for playing in a dome), and they showed last year how deep they are by winning their bowl game 42-28 as a 7.5-point underdog. The market adjusted more for USC’s absent players than they did A&M’s and I value the Aggies’ losses as more costly – most likely because I didn’t adjust for USC’s 3 missing receivers.

With value on USC and the Over the best way to play this game is the USC Team Total Over 24 (at 24 -120 or better). If you don’t have Team Totals, or if your TT is higher than 24 at -120 odds, then play Strong Opinions on USC (+3.5) at +3.5 or more and on the Over (52.5) at 53 or less. Strong Opinions are recommended as 0.5 Star plays.