Texas A&M vs


at Arlington
Sat, Sep 25
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 419
Odds: Arkansas +5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Texas A&M (-5)  23   Arkansas  22

Arkansas has been a better team than Texas A&M so far this season and the Aggies’ backup quarterback Zach Calzada has looked horrible since taking over for injured starter Haynes King early in week 2. Calzada has completed just 51.4% of his passes and averaged just 5.9 yards per pass play against Colorado and New Mexico. Struggling off the bench (4.6 yppp) against a good Colorado pass defense might be forgiven but completing only 57% and averaging 7.2 yppp is a concern against a bad New Mexico defense that would allow 7.7 yppp on the road to an average FBS quarterback.

Arkansas’ defense has been really good so far, allowing just 4.0 yards per play and 16.0 points per game, including holding Texas to just 4.0 yppl and 21 points. I expect Calzada to be much better than he’s been, as he was neck-and-neck with King to win the starting job prior to the season and Jimbo Fisher doesn’t recruit quarterbacks that can’t play. However, I still don’t expect A&M to score many points in this game even if Calzaga goes from bad to average, which is about where I rate him now.

Arkansas’ young quarterback KJ Jefferson hasn’t had to do much given the Razorbacks’ strong rushing attack (294 yards at 6.6 yards per rushing play) and he’s averaged just 21 passes per game. However, the opponents’ focus on stopping the run has given Jefferson some big play opportunities and he’s averaged 9.5 yards per pass play on a modest 61.9% completion percentage. That number will surely drop, but Jefferson has averaged 8.3 yppp even if you take out a 91-yard completion.

Texas A&M is strong defensively, yielding just 5.7 points per game and 3.7 yppl, and the Aggies have been 1.2 yppl better than average defensively even after accounting for the well below average collection of opposing  offenses that they’ve faced.

While Arkansas has been the better team so far this season my ratings don’t overreact to a small sample of games and I still favor the Aggies by 0.6 points – although I wouldn’t be surprised if Arkansas wins comfortably based on what Calzada has shown so far.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texas A&M
  • Arkansas


  • Run Plays 31.7 36.0
  • Run Yards 196.0 180.7
  • YPRP 6.2 5.0


  • Pass Comp 19.7 12.3
  • Pass Att 35.7 26.0
  • Comp % 55.1% 47.4%
  • Pass Yards 252.7 79.0
  • Sacks 2.0 3.3
  • Sack Yards 8.7 18.0
  • Sack % 5.3% 11.4%
  • Pass Plays 37.7 29.3
  • Net Pass Yards 244.0 61.0
  • YPPP 6.5 2.1


  • Total Plays 69.3 65.3
  • Total Yards 440.0 241.7
  • YPPL 6.3 3.7


  • Int 1.7 1.3
  • Int % 4.7% 5.1%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.0
  • Turnovers 2.3 1.3
  • Points 28.3 5.7
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