Game Analysis

*Note: Alabama was released to my subscribers as a Strong Opinion at -17 earlier this week. It no longer qualifies as a Strong Opinion but I obviously still like the Tide.

Strong Opinion – ALABAMA (-17*/-18)  40   Texas A&M  17

What we have here is a case of a great team with an underrated quarterback against a good team with an overrated quarterback that is now without his only receiving weapon.

Alabama’s Mac Jones was actually nearly as good on a compensated yards per pass play basis as Tua Tagovailoa was last season when you exclude his time early in the season playing with backup receivers in garbage time. Jones averaged 9.5 yppp from week 8 on (the game Tagovailoa was injured in) against FBS teams that would allow only 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Last week I wrote that having receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs shouldn’t be an issue given that those two current NFL receivers combined for 11.5 yards per target while Smith and Waddle, who are back, combined for 13.9 YPT last season on 131 targets. Last week, the Alabama wide receivers combined for 265 yards at 11.0 yards per target while Jones averaged 10.4 yards per pass play against a good Missouri defense.

Texas A&M, meanwhile, has an overrated quarterback in Kellen Mond, who averaged only 5.7 yards per pass play last season against FBS teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. Mond is a good runner (708 rushing yards at 7.4 yards per rushing play) but his passing is not likely to improve with top receiver Jhamon Ausbon opting out to prepare for the NFL. Ausbon averaged 9.3 yards on 94 passes targeted at him last season while the rest of the wide receivers combined to average only 6.3 yards per target. That’s a huge difference and the wideouts averaged only 7.1 yards per target last week against a sub-par Vanderbilt pass defense while Mond averaged just 6.1 yards per pass play in that narrow 17-12 win. The Aggies’ rushing attack was strong, as I expect it to be this season, but scoring just 17 points against Vanderbilt is a bad omen for this week’s game against one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Alabama’s defense allowed just 3.3 yards per play to Missouri in building up a 35-6 lead last week before giving up 132 yards on 16 plays in the last two drives with some backups sprinkled in among the starters.

Alabama has traditionally had trouble against running quarterbacks and last season they allowed 568 yards on 93 quarterback runs (6.1 yprp), including 485 yards at 7.1 yards per run in 6 games facing running quarterbacks. That includes 106 yards on 11 runs by Mond, who should once again have success scrambling out of trouble. However, Alabama won last year’s game by 19 points at A&M as a 17 point favorite and now they’re laying just 17 points at home against an Aggies squad that I don’t think is any better than they’ve been the last two seasons (and I think Bama is a better overall team this season).

If not for Alabama’s historical struggles against running quarterbacks this game would have qualified as a Best Bet, and my ratings still favor the Crimson Tide by 23 points even after adjusting their defense to account for their deficiency facing a running quarterback. Alabama is a Strong Opinion at -17 points or less (at -115 odds or better).