Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *UNLV (-6)  33   Syracuse  19

Lean – Under (58.5)

As I wrote last week, I didn’t think that UNLV’s offense would be any worse without QB Matthew Sluka, who quit the team over an NIL money dispute. Sluka, after all, had completed just 44% of his passes and his running (273 yards on 35 runs) could nearly be matched by new starting QB Hajj-Malik Williams, who ran for 455 yards at 7.0 yards per run last year at Campbell. I thought the offense could be better without Sluka because Williams had proven to be a better passer throughout his career at the FCS level, as he completed 70% of his passes and averaged 6.9 yards per pass play for Campbell last season. Williams completed 13 of 16 passes for 182 yards while running for 119 yards on 12 carries in the Rebels’ 59-14 demolition of conference contender Fresno State.

What had made UNLV so successful before last week was not Sluka but rather a defense that had held Houston by 7 points at 3.4 yards per play and limited Kansas to just 20 points in a 3-point road win in Lawrence. UNLV’s defense has allowed an average of just 13.7 points and just 4.8 yards per play to 3 FBS teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Syracuse has been nothing special on offense, rating a bit below average running the ball and just average throwing it with Kyle McCord’s 7.5 yards per pass play coming against a schedule of teams that would allow 7.5 yppp to an average FBS quarterback. The Rebels should contain the mediocre Orange attack.

UNLV averaged 8.0 yards per play in Williams’ first start and have now been 0.6 yppl better than average offensively through 3 games thanks to a rushing attack that’s averaging over 200 yards per game. Syracuse has a very good pass defense (5.2 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defense) but UNLV runs the ball 71% of the time and the Orange have been worse than average defending the run so far this season. Syracuse allowed an average of 190 run yards at 6.4 yprp to the 3 FBS teams that they faced. That average is skewed upwards by the 8.1 yprp they allowed to Ohio but the Orange defense was 0.4 yprp worse than average defending the run in their other two FBS games and will likely struggle to contain a UNLV offense that will attack their weakness and not test their strong secondary.

In addition to some line value and a good matchup, the Rebels apply to a very good 102-26 ATS home momentum situation that won for us a few weeks back with Washington State over Texas Tech. UNLV is a 1-Star Best bet at -7 or less (up to -115 odds).