Syracuse @

No Carolina St.

Thu, Oct 10
5:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 107
Odds: No Carolina St. -4.5, Total: 56.5

Game Analysis

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NC STATE (-4.5)  27   Syracuse  22

The total on this game looks too high, as both offenses are at a disadvantage in this game. Syracuse has been 0.8 yards per play worse than average (5.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and scoring 93 points the last two weeks against horrible defensive teams Western Michigan and Holy Cross is a mirage, as the Orange averaged only 16.7 points per game in their other 3 games and just 22 points per game against mediocre defensive teams Liberty and Maryland. NC State is a better than average defensive team that’s yielded just 20.8 points per game and 4.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team. The Syracuse offense rates about the same as the average offense that NC State has faced this season, so I don’t see the Cuse scoring much more than the 20.8 points that the Wolfpack have allowed so far this season.

NC State is making a change at quarterback to Bailey Hockman, who has completed just 28 of his 50 passes for only 4.5 yards per pass play but rated at about the team average in his only extended action two weeks ago at Florida State (NC State has been 1.5 yards per pass play worse than average and Hockman has a -1.4 yppp rating on 41 pass plays against FSU). Overall, the Wolfpack have been 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team) and Syracuse is an average defensive team overall – although they have allowed just 3 total points in two games against below average offensive teams Liberty and Holy Cross while giving up a lot of points to good offensive teams Maryland, Clemson, and Western Michigan. I suspect the Orange defense will be able to contain NC State’s poor offense and their new quarterback – my math model projects 5.0 yppl for NC State.

The Pace of this game will be higher than normal with both teams running their offense at a faster than average tempo but I still project just 49 total points and I like the Under.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Syracuse
  • No Carolina St.


  • Run Plays 38.4 34.7
  • Run Yards 161.8 174.3
  • YPRP 4.8 5.7


  • Pass Comp 21.9 20.3
  • Pass Att 36.7 37.4
  • Comp % 59.6% 54.4%
  • Pass Yards 268.7 271.4
  • Sacks 3.5 3.4
  • Sack Yards 22.2 21.8
  • Sack % 8.7% 8.4%
  • Pass Plays 40.2 40.8
  • Net Pass Yards 246.5 249.5
  • YPPP 6.1 6.1


  • Total Plays 78.6 75.5
  • Total Yards 430.5 445.7
  • YPPL 5.5 5.9


  • Int 1.2 1.2
  • Int % 3.2% 3.3%
  • Fumbles 0.6 1.2
  • Turnovers 1.8 2.4
  • Points 28.6 28.0
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