Stanford @


Sat, Sep 24
Fox Sports 1
7:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 383
Odds: Washington -13.5, Total: 63.5

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *WASHINGTON (-13)  40   Stanford  19

Michael Penix Jr. has been reborn in Seattle after a disastrous season at Indiana in 2021. Penix has a lot more receiving talent and a better offensive line to work with at Washington and he’s taken advantage with 66% completions and 10.2 yards per pass play without taking a sack in 3 games. I don’t expect Penix to continue playing at that rate, but Stanford gave up 10.4 yards per pass play to USC and I project Penix to top 300 passing yards for a 4th consecutive game at 8.6 yards per pass play. Overall, Stanford’s defense has been 0.4 yards per play worse than average, which is what they were last season. The Cardinal haven’t had a defense rated better than that since 2018 and the improvement that was expected hasn’t shown so far this season (I currently rate the Cardinal stop unit at 0.2 yppl worse than average).

Stanford has quarterback talent as well in Tanner McKee, who as 0.5 yppp better than average last season and has been 0.7 yppp better than average in two games this season (although I expect him to be 1.0 yppp better than average going forward). McKee picked apart the FCS caliber defense of Colgate but he averaged only 4.6 yppp against USC and Washington’s defense is solidly better than average and should limit the Cardinal pass attack. With McKee likely held in check it will be challenging for Stanford’s offense to move the chains consistently without a rushing attack. Stanford’s star back E.J. Smith (Emmitt Smith’s son) has averaged 6.1 yards on his 56 career runs but he’s out this week and his backup Casey Filkins has averaged just 4.3 yards on his 33 career runs and wasn’t the highly rated recruit that Smith was. Washington has yielded just 3.8 yards per rushing play in 3 games, including only 3.4 yprp to Michigan State last week, and the Cardinal are projected to run for just 3.7 yprp without Smith.

Washington is significantly improved on offense and the Huskies once again have a strong defense. Stanford, meanwhile, rates as an average FBS team at best without E.J. Smith giving the Cardinal a rushing attack to compliment McKee. I’ll take Washington in a 1-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Stanford
  • Washington


  • Run Plays 34.0 34.5
  • Run Yards 200.5 183.5
  • YPRP 5.9 5.3


  • Pass Comp 22.0 15.0
  • Pass Att 32.5 23.5
  • Comp % 67.7% 63.8%
  • Pass Yards 274.0 200.0
  • Sacks 2.5 2.5
  • Sack Yards 17.5 21.0
  • Sack % 7.1% 9.6%
  • Pass Plays 35.0 26.0
  • Net Pass Yards 256.5 179.0
  • YPPP 7.3 6.9


  • Total Plays 69.0 60.5
  • Total Yards 457.0 362.5
  • YPPL 6.6 6.0


  • Int 1.5 0.5
  • Int % 4.6% 2.1%
  • Fumbles 2.5 0.0
  • Turnovers 4.0 0.5
  • Points 34.5 25.5
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