Game Analysis

Note: Oregon State has moved out of Best Bet range and the Beavers are a Strong Opinion at -12.5 or less.

1-Star Best Bet – *OREGON STATE (-10)  37   Stanford  19

My math model leaned with Oregon State even with Stanford’s young star quarterback Tanner McKee playing and there is significant value with McKee highly unlikely to play. McKee has been good since taking over for game 1 starter Jack West midway through that opening loss to Kansas State, rating at 0.8 yards per pass play better than average while completing 65% of his passes and throwing just 5 interceptions in 8 games. West was not only horrible in week 1 (4.7 yppp before getting pulled) but he was even worse as the starter in place of McKee last week against Utah, totaling just 40 yards on 23 pass plays.

This week’s starter will be frosh Ari Patu, who had 2 passes last week for -3 yards. Obviously, the 3.1 yppp on 42 pass plays for Stanford quarterbacks other than McKee this season is a small sample, but in the last 3 years the Cardinal quarterbacks other than McKee and Davis Mills, who has started in the NFL as a rookie this season, have combined for just 5.0 yppp on 273 pass plays while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback. That’s a good sample size, but I’ve decided to be more conservative and project Patu as 0.9 yppp worse than average, which is Stanford’s worst pass rating season under coach David Shaw (in 2016). West has been 1.0 yppp worse than average in 95 career pass plays, so assuming Patu is a bit better given that he’s getting the start over West this week is reasonable. Of course, Patu could end up being great. But there also must have been a good reason that Patu was the third string QB prior to this week so the risk that he may be great is low. Stanford may also be without their top 3 wide receivers, who are all listed as questionable for this game – although for now I’ll assume that 2 of the 3 will play.

Stanford will probably try to run the ball more than they usually do, but the Beavers have a sound run defense (0.4 yards per rushing play better than average) and Stanford’s rushing attack is 0.5 yprp worse than average for the season and worse with Austin Jones (3.6 ypr) as the main ball carrier. Stanford has averaged just 3.6 yprp the last 6 games (against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp) so more running is not likely to help the Cardinal offense. Oregon State’s pass defense has been 0.7 yppp worse than average but that’s still better than Stanford’s projected pass offense.

Oregon State’s offense has averaged 6.9 yards per play with Chance Nolan at quarterback this season and the Beavers run the ball incredibly well (240 yards per game at 6.3 yprp) in addition to throwing it well (Nolan has averaged 7.8 yppp against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average QB). Stanford defends the pass pretty well (0.5 yppp better than average) but the Cardinal have allowed 244 rushing yards per game at 6.2 yprp and Oregon State should average more than 7 yards per run in this game while flirting with 300 total rushing yards.

Oregon State should top their 34 points per game average at home against a Stanford defense that is a bit worse than the average defense that the Beavers have faced and I don’t see the Cardinal staying with 10 points with a third string quarterback getting his first start on the road. Oregon State is a 1-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less and a Strong Opinion up to -12.5 points.