Southern Miss vs

Tulane

at Fort Worth
Sat, Jan 4
8:30 AM Pacific
Rotation:
Odds: Tulane -7, Total: 57.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Tulane (-7.5)  33   Southern Miss  25

The Armed Forces bowl is living up to its name by making these teams and their fans get up at the crack of dawn to play football. Tulane is obviously the better team, as the Green Wave have been 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively with their run-oriented attack while being average defensively. Overall, Tulane’s line of scrimmage rating is 3.9 points better than an average due to the positive play differential they tend to have due to their style of offense. Southern Miss is a team that depends on the pass, as quarterback Jack Abraham completed 67.5% of his passes and averaged 8.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.3 yppp to an average quarterback) while the rushing attack was a dismal 1.1 yards per rushing play worse than average (4.3 yprp against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp). Overall, the Eagles are 0.1 yards per play worse than average offensively while the defense has been 0.4 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). The Southern Miss defense tends to give up big plays, which led to the Eagles also having a positive play differential and overall their line of scrimmage rating was 5.0 points worse than average.

The math projects Tulane with a 447 yards at 6.5 yppl to 373 yards at 5.7 yppl advantage and an edge in projected turnovers. It all adds up to Tulane by 8.8 points with a total of 58.6 points. The situation favors Southern Miss a bit but Tulane applies to a 10-32 ATS bowl situation and I have no leans on this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Southern Miss
  • Tulane
SMIS
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 31.9 29.0
  • Run Yards 117.1 100.5
  • YPRP 4.3 4.0




Pass





  • Pass Comp 22.9 16.7
  • Pass Att 33.6 29.8
  • Comp % 68.0% 55.9%
  • Pass Yards 249.0 210.4
  • Sacks 2.6 2.8
  • Sack Yards 20.2 16.8
  • Sack % 7.1% 8.4%
  • Pass Plays 36.2 32.6
  • Net Pass Yards 228.8 193.6
  • YPPP 6.3 5.9

Total

  • Total Plays 68.1 61.6
  • Total Yards 366.1 310.9
  • YPPL 5.4 5.0

TO


  • Int 1.1 1.0
  • Int % 3.3% 3.4%
  • Fumbles 0.8 0.5
  • Turnovers 1.9 1.5
 
  • Points 27.8 25.9
Share This