Game Analysis
Tulane (-7.5) 33 Southern Miss 25
The Armed Forces bowl is living up to its name by making these teams and their fans get up at the crack of dawn to play football. Tulane is obviously the better team, as the Green Wave have been 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively with their run-oriented attack while being average defensively. Overall, Tulane’s line of scrimmage rating is 3.9 points better than an average due to the positive play differential they tend to have due to their style of offense. Southern Miss is a team that depends on the pass, as quarterback Jack Abraham completed 67.5% of his passes and averaged 8.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.3 yppp to an average quarterback) while the rushing attack was a dismal 1.1 yards per rushing play worse than average (4.3 yprp against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp). Overall, the Eagles are 0.1 yards per play worse than average offensively while the defense has been 0.4 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). The Southern Miss defense tends to give up big plays, which led to the Eagles also having a positive play differential and overall their line of scrimmage rating was 5.0 points worse than average.
The math projects Tulane with a 447 yards at 6.5 yppl to 373 yards at 5.7 yppl advantage and an edge in projected turnovers. It all adds up to Tulane by 8.8 points with a total of 58.6 points. The situation favors Southern Miss a bit but Tulane applies to a 10-32 ATS bowl situation and I have no leans on this game.
Rush
-
Run Plays
31.9
29.0
-
Run Yards
117.1
100.5
-
YPRP
4.3
4.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
22.9
16.7
-
Pass Att
33.6
29.8
-
Comp %
68.0%
55.9%
-
Pass Yards
249.0
210.4
-
Sacks
2.6
2.8
-
Sack Yards
20.2
16.8
-
Sack %
7.1%
8.4%
-
Pass Plays
36.2
32.6
-
Net Pass Yards
228.8
193.6
-
YPPP
6.3
5.9
Total
-
Total Plays
68.1
61.6
-
Total Yards
366.1
310.9
-
YPPL
5.4
5.0
TO
-
Int
1.1
1.0
-
Int %
3.3%
3.4%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.9
1.5
Rush
-
Run Plays
44.5
34.0
-
Run Yards
237.9
155.0
-
YPRP
5.6
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
13.1
16.9
-
Pass Att
24.3
33.3
-
Comp %
53.9%
50.7%
-
Pass Yards
185.8
229.4
-
Sacks
2.1
2.6
-
Sack Yards
12.8
16.2
-
Sack %
8.0%
7.3%
-
Pass Plays
26.4
35.9
-
Net Pass Yards
173.0
213.2
-
YPPP
6.6
5.9
Total
-
Total Plays
70.9
69.8
-
Total Yards
423.7
384.4
-
YPPL
6.0
5.5
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.8
-
Int %
2.9%
2.4%
-
Fumbles
0.9
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.6
1.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/29/18 @ Auburn |
13-24 |
+28.0
W
|
18/33 |
61/122 |
3.4/3.7 |
1/1 |
30/19 |
44/33 |
203/219 |
2/0 |
2/3 |
4.4/6.1 |
264/341 |
4.1/4.9 |
10/13/18 @ North Texas |
7-30 |
+9.0
L
|
24/33 |
101/158 |
4.2/4.8 |
1/1 |
30/24 |
44/38 |
295/292 |
1/0 |
4/0 |
6.1/7.7 |
396/450 |
5.5/6.3 |
10/20/18 UTSA |
27-17 |
-17.0
L
|
42/19 |
226/92 |
5.4/4.8 |
2/0 |
28/12 |
33/28 |
264/83 |
1/0 |
1/6 |
7.8/2.4 |
490/175 |
6.4/3.3 |
10/27/18 @ Charlotte |
17-20 |
-7.0
L
|
31/39 |
159/156 |
5.1/4.0 |
0/0 |
27/8 |
38/14 |
268/70 |
3/1 |
3/1 |
6.5/4.7 |
427/226 |
5.9/4.2 |
11/03/18 Marshall |
26-24 |
+3.0
W
|
39/18 |
113/56 |
2.9/3.1 |
2/2 |
16/17 |
25/38 |
116/188 |
0/2 |
3/3 |
4.1/4.6 |
229/244 |
3.4/4.1 |
11/10/18 @ UAB |
23-26 |
+13.0
W
|
27/41 |
72/119 |
2.7/2.9 |
0/0 |
16/14 |
39/27 |
93/195 |
1/3 |
7/2 |
2.0/6.7 |
165/314 |
2.3/4.5 |
11/17/18 Louisiana Tech |
21-20 |
-2.0
L
|
28/23 |
85/68 |
3.0/3.0 |
1/0 |
26/27 |
31/43 |
201/243 |
0/0 |
4/0 |
5.7/5.7 |
286/311 |
4.5/4.7 |
11/24/18 @ UTEP |
39-7 |
-13.5
W
|
45/26 |
276/92 |
6.1/3.5 |
0/1 |
15/11 |
21/23 |
113/92 |
0/3 |
2/5 |
4.9/3.3 |
389/184 |
5.7/3.4 |
08/31/19 Alcorn State |
38-10 |
0.0
W
|
29/30 |
108/104 |
3.7/3.5 |
1/1 |
18/17 |
28/31 |
286/120 |
1/1 |
1/4 |
9.9/3.4 |
394/224 |
6.8/3.4 |
09/07/19 @ Mississippi St. |
15-38 |
+16.5
L
|
25/38 |
132/230 |
5.3/6.1 |
1/0 |
18/16 |
26/21 |
222/156 |
2/0 |
2/3 |
7.9/6.5 |
354/386 |
6.7/6.2 |
09/14/19 @ Troy |
47-42 |
+3.0
W
|
39/12 |
122/43 |
3.1/3.6 |
0/0 |
29/29 |
37/43 |
504/485 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
13.3/10.3 |
626/528 |
8.1/8.9 |
09/21/19 @ Alabama |
7-49 |
+38.0
L
|
29/34 |
73/182 |
2.5/5.4 |
1/0 |
17/20 |
26/25 |
152/332 |
1/1 |
2/1 |
5.4/12.8 |
225/514 |
3.9/8.6 |
09/28/19 UTEP |
31-13 |
-27.0
L
|
35/21 |
175/151 |
5.0/7.2 |
1/0 |
19/14 |
28/28 |
345/143 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
11.9/4.5 |
520/294 |
8.1/5.5 |
10/12/19 North Texas |
45-27 |
-3.0
W
|
37/31 |
142/128 |
3.8/4.1 |
0/0 |
29/14 |
36/31 |
421/256 |
0/2 |
0/1 |
11.7/8.0 |
563/384 |
7.7/6.1 |
10/19/19 @ Louisiana Tech |
30-45 |
-2.5
L
|
27/37 |
125/155 |
4.6/4.2 |
0/1 |
26/14 |
40/21 |
313/318 |
4/1 |
2/1 |
7.5/14.5 |
438/473 |
6.3/8.0 |
10/26/19 @ Rice |
20-6 |
-10.0
W
|
35/21 |
157/48 |
4.5/2.3 |
0/0 |
23/14 |
36/31 |
207/97 |
1/1 |
0/9 |
5.8/2.4 |
364/145 |
5.1/2.4 |
11/09/19 UAB |
37-2 |
-7.5
W
|
30/29 |
185/98 |
6.2/3.4 |
1/0 |
17/15 |
22/25 |
139/75 |
0/2 |
4/4 |
5.3/2.6 |
324/173 |
5.8/3.0 |
11/16/19 @ UTSA |
36-17 |
-17.0
W
|
36/32 |
217/129 |
6.0/4.0 |
1/2 |
22/21 |
34/40 |
279/293 |
1/1 |
1/5 |
8.0/6.5 |
496/422 |
7.0/5.5 |
11/23/19 Western Kentucky |
10-28 |
-3.5
L
|
31/34 |
122/134 |
3.9/3.9 |
2/1 |
19/21 |
38/31 |
264/231 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
6.4/7.5 |
386/365 |
5.4/5.6 |
11/30/19 @ Florida Atl. |
17-34 |
+10.0
L
|
32/30 |
99/155 |
3.1/5.2 |
1/0 |
27/8 |
41/20 |
169/152 |
4/1 |
3/1 |
3.8/7.2 |
268/307 |
3.5/6.0 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
10/06/18 @ Cincinnati |
21-37 |
+7.0
L
|
33/46 |
156/287 |
4.7/6.2 |
1/2 |
12/15 |
31/25 |
101/154 |
0/1 |
5/2 |
2.8/5.7 |
257/441 |
3.7/6.0 |
10/20/18 SMU |
23-27 |
-7.0
L
|
41/24 |
196/76 |
4.8/3.2 |
2/0 |
14/21 |
22/40 |
125/270 |
1/1 |
5/3 |
4.6/6.3 |
321/346 |
4.7/5.2 |
10/27/18 @ Tulsa |
24-17 |
-1.0
W
|
51/33 |
321/150 |
6.3/4.5 |
1/1 |
10/12 |
19/26 |
92/165 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
4.8/5.9 |
413/315 |
5.9/5.2 |
11/03/18 @ South Florida |
41-15 |
+6.0
W
|
51/29 |
374/120 |
7.3/4.1 |
1/2 |
4/29 |
10/49 |
55/327 |
0/1 |
1/4 |
5.0/6.2 |
429/447 |
6.9/5.5 |
11/10/18 East Carolina |
24-18 |
-11.5
L
|
47/21 |
170/121 |
3.6/5.8 |
1/0 |
12/21 |
28/67 |
365/329 |
0/1 |
2/5 |
12.2/4.6 |
535/450 |
6.9/4.8 |
11/15/18 @ Houston |
17-48 |
+7.5
L
|
42/45 |
216/326 |
5.1/7.2 |
1/0 |
10/17 |
24/30 |
169/168 |
2/1 |
1/3 |
6.8/5.1 |
385/494 |
5.7/6.3 |
11/24/18 Navy |
29-28 |
-6.5
L
|
29/43 |
139/132 |
4.8/3.1 |
0/0 |
18/8 |
29/16 |
283/189 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
9.4/10.5 |
422/321 |
7.2/5.3 |
12/15/18 UL Lafayette |
41-24 |
-3.5
W
|
63/24 |
344/123 |
5.5/5.1 |
1/0 |
11/11 |
18/24 |
135/135 |
1/1 |
2/6 |
6.8/4.5 |
479/258 |
5.8/4.8 |
08/29/19 FIU |
42-14 |
-2.5
W
|
47/23 |
368/74 |
7.8/3.2 |
1/1 |
15/19 |
19/34 |
189/190 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
9.5/5.1 |
557/264 |
8.3/4.4 |
09/07/19 @ Auburn |
6-24 |
+17.0
L
|
30/44 |
125/174 |
4.2/4.0 |
0/2 |
10/19 |
34/37 |
103/207 |
1/0 |
0/0 |
3.0/5.6 |
228/381 |
3.6/4.7 |
09/14/19 Missouri State |
58-6 |
0.0
W
|
50/21 |
317/68 |
6.3/3.2 |
0/0 |
17/16 |
22/28 |
168/138 |
1/3 |
0/2 |
7.6/4.6 |
485/206 |
6.7/4.0 |
09/19/19 Houston |
38-31 |
-5.0
W
|
46/43 |
341/313 |
7.4/7.3 |
1/0 |
7/16 |
20/33 |
170/220 |
0/1 |
4/3 |
7.1/6.1 |
511/533 |
7.3/6.7 |
10/05/19 @ Army |
42-33 |
+2.5
W
|
51/43 |
336/199 |
6.6/4.6 |
2/0 |
15/9 |
21/24 |
182/164 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
7.9/6.6 |
518/363 |
7.0/5.3 |
10/12/19 Connecticut |
49-7 |
-33.5
W
|
46/28 |
311/106 |
6.8/3.8 |
0/0 |
26/19 |
34/31 |
323/128 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
9.5/4.0 |
634/234 |
7.9/3.9 |
10/19/19 @ Memphis |
17-47 |
+3.5
L
|
32/33 |
169/140 |
5.3/4.2 |
0/0 |
15/21 |
28/29 |
129/358 |
3/0 |
2/0 |
4.3/12.3 |
298/498 |
4.8/8.0 |
10/26/19 @ Navy |
38-41 |
+3.0
T
|
38/54 |
209/389 |
5.5/7.2 |
0/0 |
20/2 |
29/10 |
268/65 |
2/1 |
4/1 |
8.1/5.9 |
477/454 |
6.7/7.0 |
11/02/19 Tulsa |
38-26 |
-10.0
W
|
43/34 |
293/153 |
6.8/4.5 |
0/1 |
12/17 |
16/33 |
184/250 |
2/0 |
0/4 |
11.5/6.8 |
477/403 |
8.1/5.7 |
11/16/19 @ Temple |
21-29 |
-6.0
L
|
51/24 |
224/113 |
4.4/4.7 |
2/0 |
12/26 |
30/44 |
110/297 |
1/1 |
3/0 |
3.3/6.8 |
334/410 |
4.0/6.0 |
11/23/19 UCF |
31-34 |
+6.5
W
|
51/39 |
256/183 |
5.0/4.7 |
0/0 |
13/25 |
27/47 |
146/313 |
0/0 |
4/1 |
4.7/6.5 |
402/496 |
4.9/5.7 |
11/30/19 @ SMU |
20-37 |
+3.5
L
|
48/35 |
239/211 |
5.0/6.0 |
2/0 |
22/15 |
37/27 |
221/166 |
0/1 |
5/3 |
5.3/5.5 |
460/377 |
5.1/5.8 |