Game Analysis

Note: Memphis QB Lewis has been upgraded to probable. The Lean on the Under will be graded at Under 58.5, which is what the line was when I posted it.

Updated Prediction:

Lean – Under (58.5) – South Florida (-4)  30   MEMPHIS  23

Even with Lewis, Memphis has an overrated offense whose 6.5 yards per play has come against defensive units that would combine to allow 6.3 yppl to an average team. South Florida’s defense rated at 0.9 yppl better than average and is the first better than average defense that the Tigers will face this season.

USF does have a better than average offense that I rate at +0.5 yppl and Memphis is just average defensively (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, so they should score a decent number of points even in the windier than normal conditions.

I just don’t see enough combined offense to justify the high total, as my model projects a combined 764 yards at 5.4 yppl in this game.