South Florida @

Louisville

Sat, Sep 24
RSN
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 335
Odds: Louisville -13, Total: 64.5

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – LOUISVILLE (-13)  45   South Florida  23

South Florida lost by just 3 points as a huge underdog at Florida last week but the Bulls’ other two games were horrible and Louisville should exploit their horrible defense. USF opened the season with a 21-50 home loss to BYU in which they were outgained by 293 yards to 576 yards and then were about even in total yardage in their game against Howard, a horrible FCS team that is about 40 points worse than an average FBS team. USF won that game against Howard by 21 points (favored by 39 points), but they were a lucky +2 in fumbles and the stats would project just a 6-point win for the Bulls in that game.

Last week’s performance against Florida was legitimately good but South Florida’s defense has allowed 6.8 yards per play to a trio of teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average FBS defense and the Bulls allowed 7.7 yppl to the two FBS teams that they faced. Louisville’s offense is just as good as Florida’s offense and better than BYU’s offense and the Cardinals, who have averaged 6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) should easily top 7 yards per play just as the Cougars and Gators did against USF’s porous defense.

South Florida should have success running the ball against a soft Louisville defensive front that’s given up 6.4 yards per rushing play but the Cardinals’ have a strong pass defense and the Bulls aren’t going to be able to keep up with what their defense allows by simply running the ball. Overall, Louisville’s defense has been average (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average team) and South Florida’s offense is just average (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl).

I’ll take Louisville in a 1-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less. If your line is above 14 then you can consider the Louisville Team Total over 40 or less as a Strong Opinion.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • South Florida
  • Louisville
USF
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 32.3 32.7
  • Run Yards 208.7 231.0
  • YPRP 6.5 7.1




Pass





  • Pass Comp 15.3 21.0
  • Pass Att 28.7 29.0
  • Comp % 53.5% 72.4%
  • Pass Yards 168.7 207.7
  • Sacks 0.3 1.7
  • Sack Yards 0.0 7.3
  • Sack % 1.1% 5.4%
  • Pass Plays 29.0 30.7
  • Net Pass Yards 168.7 200.3
  • YPPP 5.8 6.5

Total

  • Total Plays 61.3 63.3
  • Total Yards 377.3 431.3
  • YPPL 6.2 6.8

TO


  • Int 1.3 1.3
  • Int % 4.6% 4.6%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.7
  • Turnovers 1.7 2.0
 
  • Points 30.3 33.7
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