Game Analysis

CINCINNATI (-21)  30   South Florida  12

South Florida’s pass attach has been dreadful with all 3 quarterbacks the Bulls have employed (combined for just 3.6 yards per pass play) but North Carolina transfer Cade Fortin is finally available and coach Jeff Scott said he will play – although he didn’t say how much he’d play. Fortin certainly has the best pedigree of all the quarterbacks (based on recruiting ratings) and reportedly has been most impressive in practices, so I’m going to assume he gets at least half the snaps in this game, which should improve the pass attack some. USF actually has a good stable of running backs but Cincy’s defense stuffs the run and is also good against the pass – so scoring opportunities for the Bulls will be scarce.

Cincinnati, however, is overrated offensively in my estimation, as not having star WR Alec Pierce really hurts. Pierce averaged an impressive 10.5 yards per pass targeted at him last season while the rest of the wide receivers combined for just 6.1 yards per target. I had expected Cincinnati’s offense to be improved but not having Pierce cuts 0.3 yards per play off of their expectation and I currently have the Bearcats rated below last year’s offense, which was 0.2 yards per play worse than average. The Bearcats have averaged only 7.0 yppl against a horrible Austin Peay defense that would allow 7.7 yppl on the road to an average FBS team and the 5.2 yppl last week against Army was below average as well (I had expected 5.7 yppl against Army’s mediocre defense). I lean a bit with USF and under.