Game Analysis

South Alabama (-6) 32   Western Michigan  26 

Note: South Alabama QB Gio Lopez has been downgraded to OUT.

South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez was injured late in the season finale. He’s considered a game-time decision, which is why I gave a predicted score with and without Lopez. Backup Bishop Davenport has thrown 55 passes and got a start against Ohio, but he was 1.0 yards per pass play worse than Lopez in that start (adjusted for Ohio’s pass defense). Lopez also adds value as a runner (540 yards on 69 runs) and that part of his game will likely be hampered if he does play. If he doesn’t run at all that would be a difference of 2.4 points and I’ll make the adjustment based on running half as often as normal, which would be an adjustment of 0.3 yards per rushing play for the team and 1.2 points. Davenport has shown no signs of being a running quarterback of the caliber of Lopez and overall he’s about 4 points worse.

South Alabama’s run game will be hurt by the absence of star frosh RB Fluff Bothwell, who has decided to transfer after running for 832 yards at 7.5 yards per rush. Kentrel Bullock is a decent back (701 yards at 5.2 ypr) and he should produce good numbers against a horrible Western Michigan defensive front that allowed 5.8 yards per rushing play to FBS teams that would combine to average just 4.7 yprp against an average defense). However, the absence of Bothwell is worth 2.2 points.

Western Michigan’s defense was horrible this season, allowing 6.5 yards per play to FBS teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defense (adjusted for facing the worst of the quarterbacks in games against Wisconsin, Marshall and Central Michigan). The Broncos will be without their best pass rusher, as DE Corey Walker has announced his intention to transfer. Walker had 5.5 of the team’s 20 sacks and also batted down 5 passes (3rd on the team in passes defended). I value Walker at 1.3 points.

Western Michigan rates at 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively and veteran quarterback Hayden Wolff has had a low interception rate throughout his career. Wolff threw no interceptions in 7 of 12 games this season while completing 67% of his passes. He should have a solid game against a South Alabama defense that’s allowed 66% completions in FBS games.

Broncos’ TE Blake Bosma, who caught 37 of 43 passes thrown to him for 9.4 yards per target (8.4 YPT vs FBS teams), has hit the transfer portal but the other tight ends have combined for 12 catches on 14 targets at 9.9 YPT (all vs FBS), so I can’t assume that Bosma will be missed. I can’t find an update on receiving yards leader Kenneth Womack, who missed the season finale. Womack wasn’t significantly better than the other wide receivers in compensated yards per target and the pass game rating was the same in the 3 FBS games that he missed as in the games he played.

South Alabama’s defense was good by Sun Belt Conference standards and rated at 0.3 yppl worse than an average FBS defense. The absence of the Jaguars’ top-rated CB Jordan Scruggs (transfer portal) weakens the pass defense, and I value Scruggs at 1.0 points.

I see some value on the over if Lopez plays – especially if he’s able to run at his usual effectiveness, but with his status in doubt I have no leans on this game.