(17) SMU @

Tulane

Fri, Oct 16
ESPN2
3:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 107
Odds: Tulane +6.5, Total: 64

Game Analysis

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Southern Methodist (-6.5)  34   TULANE  29

Tulane’s offense has really struggled to throw the football this season, as the Green Wave quarterbacks have completed just 43.6% of their passes while averaging only 4.7 yards per pass play. Michael Pratt has been better than Keon Howard while facing tougher competition, but Pratt has only connected on 45.5% of his throws for 4.8 yppp. Tulane’s rushing game is strong (261 yards at 6.1 yards per rushing play) and the Green Wave are projected to average 6.0 yprp in this game against a sub-par SMU run defense while Pratt is projected to average 5.3 yppp.

Normally that wouldn’t be enough to keep up with SMU’s offense but the Mustangs lost their best offensive player, Reggie Roberson, to a knee injury. SMU’s pass offense was 1.0 yppp worse in 6 games after Roberson was injured last season than they were in 7 games with him and Roberson was averaging an incredible 15.3 yards per target this season. Running back T.J. McDaniel is also out for the rest of the season after injuring his ankle on the first series against Memphis but his absence is likely a blessing given that Ulysses Bentley has run for 412 yards on just 49 runs and would still be averaging 6.8 ypr if you took away his 84-yard run against North Texas. McDaniel was averaging only 4.9 ypr so I expect SMU’s rush attack to improve going forward.

Tulane’s defense is very good against the run (3.9 yprp allowed) but they’ve struggled to defend the pass (7.5 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.7 yppp against an average team), so the Buechele should still have a good game even without Roberson.

My math favors SMU by only 4.6 points and 62.9 total points so there isn’t enough value to play this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • SMU
  • Tulane
SMU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 37.5 39.3
  • Run Yards 220.5 169.0
  • YPRP 6.1 4.7




Pass





  • Pass Comp 24.5 20.5
  • Pass Att 35.5 35.3
  • Comp % 69.0% 58.2%
  • Pass Yards 339.3 249.3
  • Sacks 1.5 2.8
  • Sack Yards 9.0 15.8
  • Sack % 4.1% 7.2%
  • Pass Plays 37.0 38.0
  • Net Pass Yards 330.3 233.5
  • YPPP 8.9 6.1

Total

  • Total Plays 74.5 77.3
  • Total Yards 559.8 418.3
  • YPPL 7.5 5.4

TO


  • Int 0.5 1.3
  • Int % 1.4% 3.5%
  • Fumbles 0.8 1.0
  • Turnovers 1.3 2.3
 
  • Points 44.0 23.3
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