Game Analysis

PENN STATE (-8.5)  30   Southern Methodist  23

SMU managed to lose to Clemson on a last-second field goal in the ACC Championship game, but the Mustangs outplayed the Tigers 458 yards at 5.3 yards per play to 319 yards at 4.4 yppl and certainly deserve to be playing this game.

SMU’s offense went from good to great when Kevin Jennings took over as the starting quarterback in week 4 and that undeserved loss to Clemson is their only blemish with Jennings at quarterback. The Mustangs have a big play aerial attack, as evidenced by Jenning’s 13.4 yards per completion but Jennings has also completed 66% of his passes and the Mustangs have averaged 6.7 yards per play in his 10 starts (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team).

Penn State’s defense has been 1.1 yppl better than average, yielding 5.0 yppl to FBS  teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The only other elite defense that Jennings has faced is that of Duke, who rates just behind the Nittany Lions’ defense in compensated yards per play allowed, and SMU scored 28 points on 469 yards at 6.3 yppl in that game – so the Mustangs are capable of moving the ball against a good defense.

Penn State’s offense has been 1.4 yppl better than average this season (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and I rate them slightly better after accounting for the one game that star RB Nicholas Singleton (6.4 ypr) missed. SMU’s defense rates among the best in the nation at defending the run, having yielded just 3.9 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average team) and the Mustangs also have a good pass defense (5.5 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp).

While the compensated yards per play numbers are close, the Nittany Lions have an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage because they’re expected to run more plays, as SMU’s big plays this season have resulted in fewer plays from scrimmage. SMU does have an edge in special teams and overall the math favors Penn State by 5.8 points at home. The cold weather expected (temps below 30 degrees) could have a negative impact on the visitors from Texas that are not used to playing in those conditions, so I’ve added an extra point of home field advantage to my projection.