SMU @

Memphis

Sat, Nov 18
ESPN2
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 397
Odds: Memphis +7, Total: 65

Game Analysis

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Note: This play was released to subscribers on Monday morning when SMU was favored by 7 points.

1-Star Best Bet – *Southern Methodist (-7)  39   MEMPHIS  25

Both of these teams are 8-2 but SMU is the far superior team. The Mustangs are nothing special offensively, as their 6.6 yards per play have come against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average FBS offense, but they’ve been scoring a lot of points recently against bad defensive teams – averaging 51.3 points the last 4 weeks against Temple, Tulsa, Rice, and North Texas.

Memphis is also a really bad defensive team, as the Tigers have surrendered 6.5 yards per play to 9 FBS teams that would combine to average only 5.0 yppl against an average team. That’s adjusted for facing Arkansas State in week 2 with the Red Wolves were playing two horrible quarterbacks before switching to Jaylen Raynor, and for facing UAB’s 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string quarterbacks, who are a huge drop off from Jacob Zeno. Against average or better offensive teams that they’ve faced the Tigers have allowed an average of 519 total yards at 7.8 yppl to Missouri, Boise State, Tulane and North Texas. They’ve also given up 88 points and 6.4 yppl the last two weeks to bad offensive teams South Florida and Charlotte. SMU should score at least 35 points in this game.

The Memphis offense is not likely to be able to keep up, as they’ve been just 0.1 yppl better than average offensively (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) while SMU has allowed an average of just 18.2 points per game (20.5 ppg excluding the game vs Temple with a horrible backup QB). I took that Temple game out of the model and SMU still rates at 0.6 yppl better than average defensively and only TCU has averaged more than 5.4 yppl against the Mustangs (Oklahoma averaged only 5.2 yppl). The model projects just 360 total yards at 5.3 yppl for Memphis in this game.

SMU easily qualifies as a math model play but the situation favors Memphis enough for me to only play 1-Star on the Mustangs. SMU is a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 or less (-120 odds or better).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • SMU
  • Memphis
SMU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 37.0 33.6
  • Run Yards 194.8 152.4
  • YPRP 5.3 4.5




Pass





  • Pass Comp 18.8 18.6
  • Pass Att 32.6 31.4
  • Comp % 57.5% 59.4%
  • Pass Yards 263.5 188.4
  • Sacks 1.5 3.3
  • Sack Yards 8.6 19.3
  • Sack % 4.4% 9.4%
  • Pass Plays 34.1 34.6
  • Net Pass Yards 254.9 169.1
  • YPPP 7.5 4.9

Total

  • Total Plays 71.1 68.3
  • Total Yards 449.6 321.5
  • YPPL 6.3 4.7

TO


  • Int 0.6 1.0
  • Int % 1.9% 3.2%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.4
  • Turnovers 0.9 1.4
 
  • Points 40.5 16.4
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