Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved from +3 (at release) to Purdue -2. Purdue is a Strong Opinion at that number.

2-Star Best Bet – **PURDUE (+3)   36   Rutgers  28

I have been going against Rutgers and I don’t understand why the market still rates the Scarlet Knights as a better than average team. Rutgers has the worst defense of all FBS teams, even after adjusting for opposing offenses (8.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defense). It’s one thing to give up 11.8 yppl to Washington and Oregon but Rutgers also allowed an average of 7.0 yppl to average or worse offensive teams Ohio University, Miami-Ohio, Iowa, and Minnesota, who would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defense. That is the level of defense that I’ll apply to this game against a mediocre Purdue offense.

I realize that the Boilermakers will likely be without starting quarterback Ryan Browne (coach Odom called him doubtful) but the battle between Browne and backup Malachi Singleton was very close and I don’t anticipate a drop off. Singleton played well last season when forced to play against Ole’ Miss while at Arkansas (188 yards on 17 pass plays) and he’s averaged 8.2 yards per pass play this season. Browne has completed 59.9% of his passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass play but Singleton has completed 66.1% of his 56 career pass attempts while averaging 9.4 yppp (8.5 yppp against FBS teams in non-garbage time situations). Singleton has also averaged 6.8 yards on 36 career runs, which is better than the 5.1 yards per run that Browne has averaged this season. I made no adjustment for Singleton being at quarterback and he could be an upgrade. Purdue’s offense has been 0.1 yppl better than average this season (5.7 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and the Boilermakers should surpass the 7.0 yppl that the average or worse offenses that Rutgers has faced averaged.

The Rutgers offense is barely better than the Purdue offense (0.2 yppl better than average) but Purdue’s defense is significantly better than the Scarlet Knights’ defense, as the Boilermakers have been 0.1 yppl better than average defensively (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average team) despite giving up 10.4 yppl to Notre Dame. Purdue’s median defensive rating this season has been 0.5 yppl better than average and I think the Boilermakers’ defense is a bit better than the Rutgers’ offense.

The only advantage that Rutgers has is that they are projected to run 10 more plays from scrimmage than Purdue (because Rutgers gives up so many big plays on defense), and I just can’t justify Rutgers being a favorite on the road in this game against a slightly better than average Purdue team (on a national scale).

Purdue is a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more (1-Star to -1). Strong Opinion to -2.5.