Game Analysis

Lean – NEBRASKA (-7)  26   Rutgers  15

Rutgers had the most phony win of the season last week, as the Scarlet Knights were outgained 299 yards at 5.2 yppl to 525 yards at 7.9 yppl by Washington. Rutgers has a reputation of being a good defensive team and the 16.3 points per game they’ve allowed appears to be evidence of that. However, the Knights have allowed 5.7 yppl to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team and they’ve given up 7.0 yppl to Virginia Tech and Washington the last two weeks (their other games were against Howard and Akron, which can make any defense look good).

Nebraska should move the ball well, even in the 20 mph winds, as Rutgers’ run defense has been horrible in allowing 6.0 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 4.6 yprp), including 7.2 yprp to Virginia Tech and 7.3 yprp to Washington.

Rutgers has an average run game (5.8 yprp against teams that would allow 5.8 yprp to an average team) and they’re like to struggle running it against a very good Nebraska run defense that’s yielded just 3.9 yprp in 5 games (to teams that would average 4.8  yprp).

Nebraska should have a significant advantage running the ball in this game and the Huskers have the better quarterback too – although I don’t think either team will be too successful throwing it in the heavy wind expected in Lincoln during the game.

Nebraska is a Lean at -7 or less.