Purdue @


Fri, Nov 20
4:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 327
Odds: Minnesota +2.5, Total: 60.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Purdue (-3)  32   MINNESOTA  26

Purdue is only a Strong Opinion at -2 or less with QB O’Connell out.

Minnesota has allowed 7.0 yards per rushing play or more in each of their 4 games (259 rush yards at 8.3 yprp on average) and teams that bad defending the run rarely win. Purdue isn’t as likely to take advantage of Minnesota’s horrible run defense since the Boilermakers prefer to throw the ball (48 pass plays per game) but the Gophers have allowed 8.1 yards per pass play, although against mostly good quarterbacks, and Purdue should have success through the air and on the ground when they do run the ball.

Purdue’s starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell is out but former All-American WR Rondale Moore is expected to play for the Boilermakers for the first time this season. I won’t make an adjustment for Moore, since it’s uncertain how much he’ll play there is still value on Purdue even if backup QB Jack Plummer is as bad as he was last season in his 7 starts (0.7 yards per pass play worse than average). Most likely, Plummer has improved as sophomore’s that started as freshman tend to make a significant jump. But, even in the worst case of Plummer being 1.5 yppp worse than O’Connell I’d still take Purdue as a Strong Opinion at -2 or less in this game. I, unfortunately, have it at -3 and I’m just going to sit tight and might even consider making Purdue a Best Bet if the market continues to overreact (Minny is now favored by 1.5 at most books). If the passing attack happens to struggle then Purdue will probably run more, which is what we want against Minnesota’s horrible run defense.

Minnesota’s offense success is due to running back Mohamed Ibrahim (715 rushing yards at 5.5 ypr in 4 games) but Purdue defends the run well (4.4 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yprp against an average defense) and Tanner Morgan has not been sharp this season with just 57.5% completions and 5.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB). Morgan’s numbers should be solid in this game (6.8 yppp projected) but the rushing attack likely won’t be as good and overall the projection is for a mediocre offensive performance for the Gophers (390 yards at 5.7 yards per play). Their defense will have to play much better than they’ve been playing to win this game and I’ll consider Purdue a Strong Opinion at -2 points or less with Plummer at quarterback.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Purdue
  • Minnesota


  • Run Plays 20.0 38.0
  • Run Yards 65.0 160.7
  • YPRP 4.6 4.4


  • Pass Comp 29.3 21.7
  • Pass Att 45.3 36.0
  • Comp % 64.7% 60.2%
  • Pass Yards 307.0 257.3
  • Sacks 3.0 1.0
  • Sack Yards 26.0 7.0
  • Sack % 6.2% 2.7%
  • Pass Plays 48.3 37.0
  • Net Pass Yards 281.0 250.3
  • YPPP 5.8 6.8


  • Total Plays 68.3 75.0
  • Total Yards 372.0 418.0
  • YPPL 5.4 5.6


  • Int 0.7 1.0
  • Int % 1.5% 2.8%
  • Fumbles 1.0 1.3
  • Turnovers 1.7 2.3
  • Points 25.0 23.7
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