Game Analysis
Oregon (-3.5) 29 Penn State 26
These teams graded out very similarly on both sides of the ball. Penn State’s offense has been 1.4 yards per play better than average (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, excluding their game against lowly Kent State, which I excluded from the model) while Oregon’s offense has also been 1.4 yppl better than average (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl). The Ducks’ defense has been 1.3 yppl better than average (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average defense) while the Nittany Lions have been 1.1 yppl better than average after adjusting for facing the backup quarterbacks of UCLA and Maryland.
Oregon just a bit better overall from the line of scrimmage and a bit better in special teams. The math favors the Ducks by 2.4 points with more scoring expected (in perfect dome conditions) than the market expects.
Rush
-
Run Plays
35.6
28.3
-
Run Yards
189.8
125.6
-
YPRP
5.3
4.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.0
17.9
-
Pass Att
26.6
29.6
-
Comp %
71.6%
60.6%
-
Pass Yards
235.4
182.9
-
Sacks
0.9
2.6
-
Sack Yards
6.3
16.9
-
Sack %
3.3%
7.9%
-
Pass Plays
27.5
32.1
-
Net Pass Yards
229.1
166.0
-
YPPP
8.3
5.2
Total
-
Total Plays
63.1
60.4
-
Total Yards
418.9
291.6
-
YPPL
6.6
4.8
TO
-
Int
0.4
1.0
-
Int %
1.4%
3.4%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.5
-
Turnovers
0.7
1.5
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.5
27.5
-
Run Yards
181.8
132.5
-
YPRP
5.4
4.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
23.7
16.2
-
Pass Att
32.0
29.5
-
Comp %
74.0%
54.8%
-
Pass Yards
278.3
168.8
-
Sacks
1.0
3.1
-
Sack Yards
8.5
16.8
-
Sack %
3.0%
9.5%
-
Pass Plays
33.0
32.6
-
Net Pass Yards
269.8
151.9
-
YPPP
8.2
4.7
Total
-
Total Plays
66.5
60.1
-
Total Yards
451.6
284.4
-
YPPL
6.8
4.7
TO
-
Int
0.5
0.8
-
Int %
1.6%
2.8%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.4
-
Turnovers
0.9
1.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/24 @ West Virginia |
34-12 |
-8.5
W
|
41/35 |
248/140 |
6.0/4.0 |
1/2 |
12/15 |
18/28 |
225/146 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
12.5/4.9 |
473/286 |
8.0/4.4 |
| 09/07/24 Bowling Green |
34-27 |
-35.0
L
|
34/25 |
266/123 |
7.8/4.9 |
0/0 |
13/25 |
20/40 |
186/254 |
1/2 |
2/0 |
8.5/6.4 |
452/377 |
8.1/5.8 |
| 09/21/24 Kent State |
56-0 |
-49.0
W
|
49/28 |
311/53 |
6.3/1.9 |
0/0 |
24/2 |
31/13 |
407/14 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
12.7/0.9 |
718/67 |
8.9/1.6 |
| 09/28/24 Illinois |
21-7 |
-18.0
L
|
41/25 |
246/89 |
6.0/3.6 |
0/1 |
15/16 |
21/25 |
130/142 |
0/1 |
2/7 |
5.7/4.4 |
376/231 |
5.9/4.1 |
| 10/05/24 UCLA |
27-11 |
-29.5
L
|
28/27 |
96/133 |
3.4/4.9 |
0/0 |
17/22 |
24/30 |
228/147 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
9.1/4.6 |
324/280 |
6.1/4.7 |
| 10/12/24 @ USC |
33-30 |
-5.5
L
|
31/23 |
118/193 |
3.8/8.4 |
0/0 |
30/20 |
42/34 |
400/216 |
2/1 |
0/1 |
9.5/6.2 |
518/409 |
7.1/7.1 |
| 10/26/24 @ Wisconsin |
28-13 |
-6.5
W
|
34/27 |
178/81 |
5.2/3.0 |
1/0 |
25/22 |
31/42 |
243/217 |
0/1 |
1/0 |
7.6/5.2 |
421/298 |
6.4/4.3 |
| 11/02/24 Ohio St. |
13-20 |
+3.0
L
|
30/35 |
133/192 |
4.4/5.5 |
0/1 |
13/16 |
21/24 |
137/167 |
1/1 |
2/3 |
6.0/6.2 |
270/359 |
5.1/5.8 |
| 11/09/24 Washington |
35-6 |
-12.5
W
|
40/30 |
266/81 |
6.7/2.7 |
1/0 |
20/16 |
30/23 |
220/101 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
7.3/3.9 |
486/182 |
6.9/3.3 |
| 11/16/24 @ Purdue |
49-10 |
-30.0
W
|
34/25 |
212/108 |
6.2/4.3 |
0/0 |
23/15 |
27/30 |
335/192 |
0/0 |
0/3 |
12.4/5.8 |
547/300 |
9.0/5.2 |
| 11/23/24 @ Minnesota |
26-25 |
-11.5
L
|
30/34 |
106/120 |
3.5/3.5 |
0/1 |
21/15 |
28/23 |
223/171 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
7.4/7.1 |
329/291 |
5.5/5.0 |
| 11/30/24 Maryland |
44-7 |
-25.0
W
|
49/25 |
219/121 |
4.5/4.8 |
1/0 |
20/15 |
30/26 |
193/73 |
0/3 |
0/6 |
6.4/2.3 |
412/194 |
5.2/3.4 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/24 Idaho |
24-14 |
0.0
W
|
31/16 |
133/74 |
4.3/4.6 |
1/0 |
41/11 |
49/27 |
359/142 |
0/2 |
3/4 |
6.9/4.6 |
492/216 |
5.9/4.6 |
| 09/07/24 Boise St. |
37-34 |
-20.5
L
|
31/32 |
142/222 |
4.6/6.9 |
2/0 |
18/17 |
21/40 |
206/147 |
0/0 |
4/1 |
8.2/3.6 |
348/369 |
6.2/5.1 |
| 09/14/24 @ Oregon St. |
49-14 |
-17.0
W
|
29/28 |
245/141 |
8.4/5.0 |
0/0 |
23/23 |
27/35 |
306/175 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
11.3/4.7 |
551/316 |
9.8/4.9 |
| 09/28/24 @ UCLA |
34-13 |
-25.5
L
|
34/19 |
156/86 |
4.6/4.5 |
0/0 |
31/14 |
42/24 |
280/113 |
1/2 |
0/4 |
6.7/4.0 |
436/199 |
5.7/4.2 |
| 10/04/24 Michigan St. |
31-10 |
-23.5
L
|
36/24 |
215/96 |
6.0/4.0 |
0/1 |
21/11 |
33/22 |
264/117 |
2/0 |
0/5 |
8.0/4.3 |
479/213 |
6.9/4.2 |
| 10/12/24 Ohio St. |
32-31 |
+3.0
W
|
31/31 |
155/162 |
5.0/5.2 |
0/1 |
23/28 |
34/35 |
341/317 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
10.0/8.8 |
496/479 |
7.6/7.1 |
| 10/18/24 @ Purdue |
35-0 |
-28.5
W
|
32/37 |
155/222 |
4.8/6.0 |
0/1 |
21/9 |
25/19 |
268/79 |
1/1 |
2/3 |
9.9/3.6 |
423/301 |
7.2/5.1 |
| 10/26/24 Illinois |
38-9 |
-21.5
W
|
38/29 |
237/156 |
6.2/5.4 |
0/0 |
20/17 |
28/35 |
301/135 |
1/2 |
1/3 |
10.4/3.6 |
538/291 |
8.0/4.3 |
| 11/02/24 @ Michigan |
38-17 |
-14.5
W
|
37/27 |
176/111 |
4.8/4.1 |
1/0 |
22/13 |
34/24 |
294/165 |
0/0 |
0/0 |
8.6/6.9 |
470/276 |
6.6/5.4 |
| 11/09/24 Maryland |
39-18 |
-24.0
L
|
31/28 |
180/87 |
5.8/3.1 |
0/1 |
23/22 |
34/45 |
183/198 |
0/2 |
0/2 |
5.4/4.2 |
363/285 |
5.6/3.8 |
| 11/16/24 @ Wisconsin |
16-13 |
-13.5
L
|
35/32 |
166/141 |
4.7/4.4 |
0/0 |
22/12 |
31/28 |
199/83 |
1/1 |
2/2 |
6.0/2.8 |
365/224 |
5.4/3.6 |
| 11/30/24 Washington |
49-21 |
-18.0
W
|
37/27 |
222/92 |
6.0/3.4 |
1/1 |
19/17 |
26/20 |
236/152 |
0/0 |
0/10 |
9.1/5.1 |
458/244 |
7.3/4.3 |
Penn St.
vs 
Oregon