Game Analysis

Lean – Under (45) – OHIO STATE (-19.5)  27   Penn State  10

It was a tough first start for new Penn State quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, who had to face an elite Iowa defense and managed just 84 yards on 29 pass plays. The coaching staff leaned more heavily on the run game, which slowed their pace down significantly, from 2.30 plays per minute of possession to just 2.05 plays per minutes, which amounts to about 7 plays per game. I landed on an adjustment of 2.7 total plays less than projected and Ohio State already runs their offense among the slowest of all non-option teams at just 1.85 plays per minute.

Penn State’s defense inexplicably allowed 6.5 yards per play to a horrible Iowa defense in their 24-25 loss to the Hawkeyes but I expect a more focused effort from a unit that still rates at 0.9 yppl better than average even with that bad performance (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense).

Ohio State’s offense has been 1.2 yppl better than average, so the Buckeyes only have a 0.3 yppl advantage and are projected to run just 59.2 plays in this game (excluding kneel downs).

The Under is a Lean at 44 points or more.