Game Analysis

Penn State (-27.5)  40   ILLINOIS  17

Penn State has certainly shown that they can blowout opponents, as the Nittany Lions beat Pitt by 45 points and Kent State by 53 points the last two weeks after needing overtime to beat Appalachian State as a 23.5 point favorite in week 1. The Penn State offense hasn’t been as good as the 53 points per game average suggests, as 6.5 yards per play with the quarterback McSorley in the game should not lead to that many points. McSorley has been inconsistent throwing the football in the new offense, as he’s completed just 52% of his passes, but the rushing attack has been great with Miles Sanders averaging nearly 100 yards per game and 6.0 yards per rush. The Illini stop unit is decent defending the run but they’ve given up 7.3 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average just 5.4 yppp against an average team, so McSorley could have a big night if he can rediscover his accuracy (61% passing since the start of the 2016 season).

The Penn State defense has been good, as the Nittany Lions have allowed just 4.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Illinois may be without starting quarterback A.J. Bush again but backup M.J. Rivers is a better passer, which nearly makes up for the absence of Bush’s running (165 yards on 23 runs in less than 1 ½ games). Rivers is still significantly worse than average throwing the ball (64% completions but just 4.8 yards per pass play) but Illinois has still run the ball well without Bush (5.8 yards per rushing play the last two games) and Penn State is not as good defending the run as they are defending the pass. The Lions gave up 456 rushing yards at 5.6 yprp in their first two games against Appalachian State and Pitt and my number project 230 rushing yards at 5.0 yprp for Illinois in this game if Bush does not play. I don’t see Rivers having much success throwing the ball (just 3.6 yards per pass play expected) but the Illini should move the ball well enough on the ground with running backs Epstein and Corbin (combined for 491 rushing yards at 6.8 ypr) to give them a few good scoring chances. My math favors Illinois to stay within the inflated number.