Game Analysis

Wisconsin (-3)  27   Oregon  24

Oregon was certainly impressive in the Pac-12 Championship game and the Ducks were likely just 1 play away from being the playoffs this season, as they lost late in the game to Auburn in their season opener and fell by just 3 points to Arizona State for their other loss.

Oregon’s offense is led by future NFL 1^st-Round draft pick Justin Herbert, who completed 67% of his passes and averaged 7.4 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) and didn’t fall off at all after losing explosive TE Jacob Breeland midway through the season. The Ducks are also a very good rushing team, as they average over 200 ground yards per game at 5.9 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp). Overall, the Ducks have been 1.0 yards per play better than average offensively and are projected to gain 329 yards at 5.7 yppl against a Badgers’ defense that is 1.1 yppl better than average.

Oregon is also very good defensively, yielding just 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team but the Ducks are better against the pass (1.5 yppp better than average) than they are defending the run (0.7 yprp better than average) and the Badgers are a running team with Jonathan Taylor closing in on another 2000 yard season. Taylor averages 6.4 ypr and quarterback Jack Coan is very efficient with 70% completions while averaging 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB). Overall, the Badgers have been 1.4 yards per play better than average offensively and have an advantage over the Ducks’ strong defense. My math projects 418 total yards at 6.1 yppl for Wisconsin.

Overall, the math favors the Badgers by 6 points with 50.8 total points but Oregon applies to a 70-15-1 ATS bowl situation. I’ll pass.