Game Analysis
WASHINGTON (+2.5) 24 Oregon 23
I’m rooting for Oregon here, as another loss by Washington will cash my Huskies Under 9.5 wins Best Bet, but this game could go either way. These teams rate exactly the same offensively at 1.04 yards per play better than average but Oregon’s attack is downgraded by the injury to All-American caliber TE Jacob Breeland. Breeland leads the Ducks with 405 yards and has caught 26 of the 32 passes thrown to him and his 12.7 yards per target average is significantly higher than the rest of the receivers and tight tends, who combine for a modest 7.8 yards per target (the other tight ends for 5.9 YPT). That works out to a bit over 2 points per game in value and Justin Herbert’s favorite target will certainly be missed against a good Washington defense.
The Huskies have been 0.9 yards per play better than average defensively, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense, and they haven’t allowed more than 27 points any game this season. Oregon, meanwhile, averaged just 19 points in two games against very good defensive teams Auburn and Cal and I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up around that number in this game.
Washington’s offense also struggled against Cal, averaging just 4.3 yppl and scoring 19 points against the Bears – their only game against a really good defense – and the Huskies are up against an the best defense they’ll face all season in this game. Oregon has yielded just 8.7 points per game with only Auburn scoring more than 7 points against the Ducks and they’ve been a very impressive 1.5 yards per play better than average in allowing just 4.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense.
My math model favors Oregon by just 1.6 points and Washington applies to a 130-52-2 ATS home team situation. I’ll go with the Huskies in a mini-upset and I hope that I’m wrong.
Rush
-
Run Plays
34.5
35.5
-
Run Yards
167.1
158.6
-
YPRP
5.2
4.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.4
20.3
-
Pass Att
33.9
36.3
-
Comp %
60.3%
56.0%
-
Pass Yards
237.0
216.6
-
Sacks
1.8
2.2
-
Sack Yards
12.1
12.8
-
Sack %
5.1%
5.7%
-
Pass Plays
35.7
38.5
-
Net Pass Yards
225.0
203.8
-
YPPP
6.3
5.3
Total
-
Total Plays
70.2
73.9
-
Total Yards
404.1
375.3
-
YPPL
5.8
5.1
TO
-
Int
0.3
1.4
-
Int %
0.9%
3.7%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.1
1.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
38.0
30.3
-
Run Yards
185.4
123.1
-
YPRP
5.1
4.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.3
21.2
-
Pass Att
28.5
33.3
-
Comp %
64.3%
63.6%
-
Pass Yards
227.2
210.8
-
Sacks
1.6
2.1
-
Sack Yards
9.7
14.9
-
Sack %
5.2%
5.9%
-
Pass Plays
30.0
35.4
-
Net Pass Yards
217.5
195.9
-
YPPP
7.2
5.5
Total
-
Total Plays
68.0
65.7
-
Total Yards
412.6
333.8
-
YPPL
6.1
5.1
TO
-
Int
0.7
1.1
-
Int %
2.4%
3.4%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.1
1.6
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
10/13/18 Washington |
30-27 |
+3.5
W
|
47/43 |
186/201 |
4.0/4.7 |
1/0 |
18/15 |
32/25 |
193/240 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
5.7/9.2 |
379/441 |
4.7/6.4 |
10/20/18 @ Washington St. |
20-34 |
+2.0
L
|
20/20 |
81/94 |
4.1/4.7 |
0/0 |
25/39 |
44/51 |
254/323 |
0/2 |
3/0 |
5.4/6.3 |
335/417 |
5.0/5.9 |
10/27/18 @ Arizona |
15-44 |
-9.5
L
|
21/49 |
95/286 |
4.5/5.8 |
2/0 |
24/19 |
48/33 |
177/180 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
3.6/5.3 |
272/466 |
3.9/5.6 |
11/03/18 UCLA |
42-21 |
-10.5
W
|
42/37 |
200/228 |
4.8/6.2 |
0/2 |
18/22 |
32/48 |
264/272 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
8.3/5.6 |
464/500 |
6.3/5.8 |
11/10/18 @ Utah |
25-32 |
+3.5
L
|
28/45 |
137/252 |
4.9/5.6 |
1/0 |
20/18 |
33/31 |
259/253 |
0/0 |
4/1 |
7.0/7.9 |
396/505 |
6.1/6.6 |
11/17/18 Arizona St. |
31-29 |
-3.5
L
|
38/37 |
207/168 |
5.4/4.5 |
2/1 |
19/15 |
34/32 |
255/158 |
2/0 |
1/4 |
7.3/4.4 |
462/326 |
6.3/4.5 |
11/23/18 @ Oregon St. |
55-15 |
-19.0
W
|
60/26 |
416/81 |
6.9/3.1 |
0/1 |
10/21 |
14/39 |
100/242 |
0/3 |
2/2 |
6.3/5.9 |
516/323 |
6.8/4.8 |
12/31/18 Michigan St. |
7-6 |
-2.0
L
|
22/42 |
68/181 |
3.1/4.3 |
0/0 |
19/22 |
33/40 |
152/150 |
0/1 |
2/4 |
4.3/3.4 |
220/331 |
3.9/3.8 |
08/31/19 Auburn |
21-27 |
+3.5
L
|
29/41 |
122/217 |
4.2/5.3 |
1/0 |
28/13 |
37/31 |
220/169 |
0/2 |
3/1 |
5.5/5.3 |
342/386 |
5.0/5.3 |
09/07/19 Nevada |
77-6 |
-24.0
W
|
38/34 |
223/122 |
5.9/3.6 |
1/2 |
27/16 |
35/28 |
400/84 |
0/2 |
1/5 |
11.1/2.5 |
623/206 |
8.4/3.1 |
09/14/19 Montana |
35-3 |
0.0
W
|
38/17 |
247/28 |
6.5/1.6 |
0/0 |
30/24 |
42/43 |
316/214 |
0/1 |
0/4 |
7.5/4.6 |
563/242 |
7.0/3.8 |
09/21/19 @ Stanford |
21-6 |
-10.5
W
|
26/28 |
86/140 |
3.3/5.0 |
0/0 |
19/16 |
24/30 |
234/94 |
0/1 |
4/5 |
8.4/2.7 |
320/234 |
5.9/3.7 |
10/05/19 California |
17-7 |
-20.0
L
|
38/25 |
201/108 |
5.3/4.3 |
2/0 |
20/17 |
33/34 |
208/161 |
1/2 |
1/4 |
6.1/4.2 |
409/269 |
5.7/4.3 |
10/11/19 Colorado |
45-3 |
-21.5
W
|
34/37 |
283/175 |
8.3/4.7 |
0/0 |
19/19 |
34/34 |
263/126 |
0/4 |
1/1 |
7.5/3.6 |
546/301 |
7.9/4.2 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
10/06/18 @ UCLA |
31-24 |
-21.0
L
|
50/27 |
229/150 |
4.6/5.6 |
0/0 |
18/27 |
26/38 |
248/272 |
1/1 |
2/0 |
8.9/7.2 |
477/422 |
6.1/6.5 |
10/13/18 @ Oregon |
27-30 |
-3.5
L
|
43/47 |
201/186 |
4.7/4.0 |
0/1 |
15/18 |
25/32 |
240/193 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
9.2/5.7 |
441/379 |
6.4/4.7 |
10/20/18 Colorado |
27-13 |
-17.5
L
|
36/34 |
205/124 |
5.7/3.6 |
1/0 |
15/17 |
25/28 |
149/135 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
5.7/4.7 |
354/259 |
5.7/4.1 |
10/27/18 @ California |
10-12 |
-11.5
L
|
31/33 |
101/112 |
3.3/3.4 |
0/0 |
12/16 |
25/23 |
160/130 |
2/0 |
2/4 |
5.9/4.8 |
261/242 |
4.5/4.0 |
11/03/18 Stanford |
27-23 |
-10.5
L
|
42/22 |
201/86 |
4.8/3.9 |
0/0 |
16/29 |
27/43 |
170/338 |
0/3 |
3/1 |
5.7/7.7 |
371/424 |
5.2/6.4 |
11/17/18 Oregon St. |
42-23 |
-33.0
L
|
40/33 |
298/168 |
7.5/5.1 |
0/2 |
17/20 |
23/35 |
229/193 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
9.2/5.2 |
527/361 |
8.1/5.2 |
11/23/18 @ Washington St. |
28-15 |
+2.5
W
|
41/21 |
272/113 |
6.6/5.4 |
2/1 |
12/26 |
15/35 |
219/135 |
1/2 |
1/2 |
13.7/3.6 |
491/248 |
8.6/4.3 |
11/30/18 Utah |
10-3 |
-4.5
W
|
38/22 |
128/66 |
3.4/3.0 |
0/0 |
21/17 |
33/27 |
179/122 |
1/3 |
1/3 |
5.3/4.1 |
307/188 |
4.3/3.6 |
01/01/19 @ Ohio St. |
23-28 |
+6.5
W
|
33/27 |
143/134 |
4.3/5.0 |
0/0 |
36/25 |
55/37 |
302/235 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
5.3/5.9 |
445/369 |
4.9/5.5 |
08/31/19 Eastern Washington |
47-14 |
0.0
W
|
40/26 |
204/95 |
5.1/3.7 |
0/0 |
28/21 |
38/35 |
370/179 |
0/0 |
0/4 |
9.7/4.6 |
574/274 |
7.4/4.2 |
09/07/19 California |
19-20 |
-13.5
L
|
43/33 |
193/210 |
4.5/6.4 |
1/0 |
17/11 |
29/18 |
132/95 |
1/0 |
3/3 |
4.1/4.5 |
325/305 |
4.3/5.6 |
09/14/19 Hawaii |
52-20 |
-21.5
W
|
29/33 |
193/147 |
6.7/4.5 |
0/0 |
18/26 |
25/47 |
261/248 |
0/3 |
1/1 |
10.0/5.2 |
454/395 |
8.3/4.9 |
09/21/19 @ BYU |
45-19 |
-6.5
W
|
36/24 |
193/103 |
5.4/4.3 |
1/2 |
24/26 |
28/42 |
290/257 |
1/1 |
0/3 |
10.4/5.7 |
483/360 |
7.5/5.2 |
09/28/19 USC |
28-14 |
-11.0
W
|
32/32 |
207/224 |
6.5/7.0 |
1/0 |
16/19 |
26/32 |
175/151 |
0/3 |
2/1 |
6.3/4.6 |
382/375 |
6.4/5.8 |
10/05/19 @ Stanford |
13-23 |
-14.5
L
|
20/43 |
109/195 |
5.5/4.5 |
0/0 |
16/21 |
36/30 |
185/293 |
1/0 |
2/0 |
4.9/9.8 |
294/488 |
5.1/6.7 |
10/12/19 @ Arizona |
51-27 |
-6.0
W
|
41/35 |
222/197 |
5.4/5.6 |
1/3 |
15/16 |
22/33 |
232/168 |
0/1 |
1/4 |
10.1/4.5 |
454/365 |
7.1/5.1 |