Game Analysis

WASHINGTON (+2.5)  24   Oregon  23

I’m rooting for Oregon here, as another loss by Washington will cash my Huskies Under 9.5 wins Best Bet, but this game could go either way. These teams rate exactly the same offensively at 1.04 yards per play better than average but Oregon’s attack is downgraded by the injury to All-American caliber TE Jacob Breeland. Breeland leads the Ducks with 405 yards and has caught 26 of the 32 passes thrown to him and his 12.7 yards per target average is significantly higher than the rest of the receivers and tight tends, who combine for a modest 7.8 yards per target (the other tight ends for 5.9 YPT). That works out to a bit over 2 points per game in value and Justin Herbert’s favorite target will certainly be missed against a good Washington defense.

The Huskies have been 0.9 yards per play better than average defensively, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense, and they haven’t allowed more than 27 points any game this season. Oregon, meanwhile, averaged just 19 points in two games against very good defensive teams Auburn and Cal and I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up around that number in this game.

Washington’s offense also struggled against Cal, averaging just 4.3 yppl and scoring 19 points against the Bears – their only game against a really good defense – and the Huskies are up against an the best defense they’ll face all season in this game. Oregon has yielded just 8.7 points per game with only Auburn scoring more than 7 points against the Ducks and they’ve been a very impressive 1.5 yards per play better than average in allowing just 4.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense.

My math model favors Oregon by just 1.6 points and Washington applies to a 130-52-2 ATS home team situation. I’ll go with the Huskies in a mini-upset and I hope that I’m wrong.