Oregon St. @


Sat, Sep 25
Fox Sports 1
7:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 365
Odds: USC -11, Total: 62

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Oregon State (+11)  31   USC  36

Oregon State opened the season with Sam Noyer at quarterback and the Beavers were down 7-16 at Purdue before Chance Nolan was inserted into the game. Nolan produced 157 yards on 16 pass plays in a come-from-behind effort (were within 2 with a few minutes remaining) and has been great ever since. Nolan reportedly spent the offseason studying the Beavers’ NFL style offense and he’s now getting through his progressions rather than taking off running when the first read isn’t open, as was the case in his 3 starts last season. Nolan is a good runner (273 yards on 36 scrambles in 6 games since last season) but the experienced offensive line is protecting him better this season (only 2 sacks allowed on 66 pass plays) and he’s completed 45 of 64 passes (70.3%) while averaging 9.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback). That impressive yards per pass play average is not the product of a randomly big play or two, as Nolan’s longest pass play has been just 45 yards. He’s consistently connecting on 20-plus yard pass plays in a well-schemed offense and thus far the Trojans have allowed an average of 7.1 yppp to opposing starting quarterbacks (WSU’s backups gained just 42 pass yards on 18 pass plays in that blowout win last week and I adjust for that in my model) and the defensive front recorded zero sacks against San Jose State and Stanford. If Nolan has time to throw, which it appears he will, then USC’s secondary will likely get picked apart. If the Trojans do put some pressure on Nolan then he has the legs to escape it.

USC’s offense worked well last week even after starting quarterback Kedon Slovis left the game after a few plays, as Jaxson Dart averaged 8.5 yppp in a 45-14 win over Washington State. Slovis is practicing this week and looks like the starter (Dart is questionable) and USC’s aerial attack should work pretty well against a below average Beavers’ pass defense. However, the Trojans’ rushing attack continues to struggle, as they did last season. USC has averaged only 4.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team and OSU defends the urn well (just 3.9 yprp allowed in 3 games). I’m guessing USC will throw the ball around 50 times, as they did last week, and that should produce a good number of points. However, Oregon State’s well-rounded attack (also averaged 206 rushing yards at 6.2 yards per rushing play) should be able to keep up.

Oregon State is a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Oregon St.
  • USC


  • Run Plays 33.0 29.7
  • Run Yards 205.7 115.0
  • YPRP 6.2 3.9


  • Pass Comp 20.0 22.0
  • Pass Att 30.7 38.3
  • Comp % 65.2% 57.4%
  • Pass Yards 270.7 254.3
  • Sacks 1.0 2.0
  • Sack Yards 9.3 14.7
  • Sack % 3.2% 5.0%
  • Pass Plays 31.7 40.3
  • Net Pass Yards 261.3 239.7
  • YPPP 8.3 5.9


  • Total Plays 64.7 70.0
  • Total Yards 467.0 354.7
  • YPPL 7.2 5.1


  • Int 0.7 1.3
  • Int % 2.2% 3.5%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.0
  • Turnovers 1.0 1.3
  • Points 36.0 19.0
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