Oregon vs

Oklahoma

at San Antonio
Wed, Dec 29
ESPN
6:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 253
Odds: Oklahoma -7, Total: 60.5

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Over (61) – Oklahoma (-7)  38   Oregon  31

My math model would have projected 63.3 total points in this game before adjusting for all of the opt-outs and transfers affecting both teams. Most of the damage was on the defensive side of the football, as potential #1 overall pick DE Kayvon Thibodeaux is one of 5 Oregon defensive starters that won’t play in this game while Oklahoma will be missing 4 NFL-bound defenders. Those defensive absences far outweigh the loss of 4 Oregon receivers, as only Devon Williams is a difference maker among that group.

Oregon’s offense will be missing CJ Verdell, who’s been out since week 6, and wide receivers Devon Williams, Johnny Johnson, Jaylon Redd, and Mycah Pittman. Verdell averaged a modest 5.2 ypr on 78 runs and his absence opened the door for Travis Dye (1118 yards at 5.8 ypr) and Byron Cardwell (500 yards at 7.3 ypr), so I have no concern about a Ducks’ rushing attack that averaged 215 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp). Quarterback Anthony Brown averaged 6.9 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB and the absence of Williams is worth 0.3 yppp, as his 10.3 yards per target is not easily replaced. However, Johnson, Redd, and Pittman combined for just 7.8 YPT on 90 targets and the rest of the wide receivers, excluding Williams, combined for 8.6 YPT on 79 targets, which is why I don’t think they’ll be missed at all. I rate Oregon’s offense at 0.7 yppl better than average heading into this game.

Oklahoma’s defense was only 0.3 yppl better than average this season and the Sooners are likely to be worse than average without 4 NFL-bound starters that opted out. That list of players is leading tackler LB Brian Asamoah and defensive linemen Nik Bonitto, Isaiah Thomas, and Perrion Winfrey, who are the top 3 on the team in sacks and total tackles for loss. Those 3 linemen accounted for 20.5 sacks and 37.5 total tackles for loss and the absence of the top 4 Sooners’ defenders is worth 3.8 points according to my algorithms. I rate Oklahoma’s defense at 0.3 yppl worse than average with current personnel and project Oregon to gain 441 yards at 6.8 yppl, which includes a boost for this game being played in a domed stadium.

Oklahoma’s offense averaged 38.4 points and 445 total yards per game at 6.9 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and the offense improved when Caleb Williams took over at quarterback mid-season. The pass attack was better with Williams, who threw the ball down the field more than Spencer Rattler did (14.5 yards per completion to 10.6 ypc for Rattler) and Williams is incredibly effective running the ball, as he gained 549 yards on 52 runs. The transfer of leading receiver Jadon Haselwood is likely to help the pass attack, as he averaged a poor 6.7 yards per target with a 49% success rate while the next 4 wide receivers combined for 10.2 YPT and a 59% success rate. The Sooners were 2.0 yppl better than average offensively with Williams at quarterback, which equates to about 4 points per game better than their season rating.

Oregon had a very good defense this season, as the Ducks yielded 5.4 yppl to FBS teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defensive team. However, that defense gave up 612 yards at 7.2 yppl to Ohio State when Thibodeaux was out of the lineup in week 2 and fellow starters CB Mykael Wright (opted out to prepare for NFL draft), CB DJ James (transfer), S Steve Stephens (leg injury), and 1st-Team All-Pac 12 DT Popo Aumavae (not practicing and reportedly confirmed to be out) are also out for this game. Four backup defensive players are also not with the team (I didn’t adjust for those players). The 5 starters that are out are worth a combined 3.6 points and Oregon’s defensive rating heading into this game is 0.5 yppl better than average. I project Oklahoma to gain 501 yards at 7.5 yppl in this game (adjusted for perfect dome conditions).

The math favors Oklahoma by 5.1 points with a total of 69.5 points and Oregon applies to a 9-36 ATS bowl game situation and could be worse than projected given their depth issues (31 of 88 scholarship players have not been practicing or didn’t make the trip). The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 63 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Oregon
  • Oklahoma
ORE
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 36.5 32.4
  • Run Yards 214.8 143.5
  • YPRP 5.9 4.4




Pass





  • Pass Comp 17.8 21.9
  • Pass Att 28.3 36.3
  • Comp % 62.8% 60.5%
  • Pass Yards 214.3 249.0
  • Sacks 1.5 2.0
  • Sack Yards 7.7 13.0
  • Sack % 5.0% 5.2%
  • Pass Plays 29.8 38.3
  • Net Pass Yards 206.7 236.0
  • YPPP 6.9 6.2

Total

  • Total Plays 66.3 70.7
  • Total Yards 421.5 379.5
  • YPPL 6.4 5.4

TO


  • Int 0.6 1.2
  • Int % 2.1% 3.2%
  • Fumbles 0.5 0.4
  • Turnovers 1.1 1.6
 
  • Points 31.4 25.5
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