Game Analysis

Lean – Iowa State (-4.5)  35   Oregon  27

Oregon managed to win the Pac-12 Championship by getting in the game by default when Washington couldn’t play due to a Covid outbreak. The Ducks took advantage and beat an overrated USC team 31-24 but they were outplayed in that game 255 yards at 4.3 yards per play to 358 yards at 4.4 yppl – winning due to a +2 turnover margin. Iowa State, meanwhile, outplayed an elite Oklahoma team from the line of scrimmage by 41 total yards (6.1 to 6.2 yppl) and lost due to an uncharacteristic -3 in turnovers (just 11 offensive turnovers in 10 previous games).

Iowa State is a better team, as the Cyclones rate at 1.2 yards per play better than average offensively (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and 0.7 yppl better than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl) while Oregon’s offense is 1.2 yppl better than average offensively (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl), which is the same as ISU, while the Ducks’ defense has only been 0.3 yppl better than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl – adjusted for facing UCLA’s backup QB).

Oregon played two good defensive teams this season (Cal and USC) and the Ducks averaged just 24 points and 5.2 yppl in those games, although my math projects 396 yards at 6.4 yppl in perfect indoor conditions. ISU is projected to control the ball (+9 play differential) and tally 489 yards at 6.9 yppl. I’ll lean with Iowa State at -5.5 or less.