Game Analysis

Lean – Old Dominion (+9)  26   Tulsa  31

Lean – Over (52.5)

Old Dominion has had a solid defense all season long and their offense improved dramatically when Hayden Wolff took over at quarterback in week 7. The Monarchs lost that game to a very good Western Kentucky team but they won their final 5 games (also 5-0 ATS) to get to this bowl game after starting the season 1-6. Only two other teams in my database that goes back to 1980 have started 1-6 and made it to a bowl game. One is North Texas, who plays later this week, and the other was Miami-Ohio in 2016 and the Redhawks were extremely close to beating Mississippi State as a 14-point underdog in their bowl game (lost 16-17 on a late FG).

Tulsa had to win their final 3 games to qualify for a bowl, so they’re likely just as excited to be playing in this game. With motivation likely equal, this comes down to line value and I see the line value on Old Dominion, just as I have over the second half of the season in which my math model at least leaned with the Monarchs in each of their last 5 games.

For the season, the Old Dominion offense was 1.1 yards per play worse than average, as original starting quarterback D.J. Mack averaged a horrible 3.6 yards per pass play while facing teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback. Wolff was much better, as he’s averaged 7.2 yppp in his 6 starts (against teams that would allow 7.5) and improved his yppp average in each of the last 4 games – ending with 9.4 yppp in week 12 against a good Middle Tennessee State pass defense and then 11.1 yppp in the finale against Charlotte (they’re terrible defensively but 11.1 yppp is still good). I’ll assume that Wolff plays at his average level over his 6 starts but it’s certainly plausible that he’ll play better than that given his consistent improvement. Tulsa’s defense is average on a national scale and I project 357 yards at 5.3 yards per play for the Monarchs in this game.

Old Dominion’s defense rates the same as the Tulsa defense (average on a national scale), as the Monarchs allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. Tulsa does have the better offense, as the Golden Hurricane averaged 6.2 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average attack. The pass attack wasn’t quite as good on a compensated yards per pass play basis over the final 3 games without WR Sam Crawford Jr., who leads the team in yards per target at 9.8 YPT among the top 5 receivers on the team. The dropoff isn’t much and I still rate the Hurricane offense at 0.2 yppp better than average, which isn’t much of an edge over the Old Dominion defense. I project 444 yards at 6.1 yppl for Tulsa.

It appears that Old Dominion, who covered the spread in each of their last 5 games with Wolff at quarterback, is still underrated, as my model favors Tulsa by just 5.7 points with a total of 57.3 points. I’ll lean with Old Dominion at +7.5 or more and I’ll lean over 53.5 points or less.