Oklahoma St. @

Texas

Sat, Oct 16
FOX
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 173
Odds: Texas -4, Total: 60

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **Oklahoma State (+4)  29   TEXAS  26

The value in this game is in the health of the receiving corps of each team, as Oklahoma State’s offense is much better now that their key receivers are healthy while Texas takes a hit with the injury to #2 receiver Jordon Whittingham.

Oklahoma State started the season with a backup quarterback in a narrow 23-16 win over Missouri State and when Spencer Sanders was available to take over an injury to top receiver Tay Martin crippled the pass attack for two weeks in which Sanders averaged just 5.4 yards per pass play. Martin returned in week 4 and Oklahoma State’s aerial attack has averaged 8.8 yppp in impressive wins over good defensive teams Kansas State and Baylor. The four wide receivers that are currently playing have combined for a weighted average of 10.2 yards per target while the receivers that are no longer in the rotation have combined for just 7.6 YPT. Also aiding the pass offense is running back Jaylen Brown, who has caught 9 of 10 passes thrown to him for 122 yards while former starter LD Brown (injured) had a total of just 8 yards on 7 targets before getting hurt. Oklahoma’s offense has been just average in 4 games with Sanders at quarterback but they’ve been 0.6 yppl better than average the last two weeks with a healthy Tay Martin and I rate that unit at +0.4 yppl heading into this game.

That’s certainly nothing special but the Texas defense has been 0.2 yppl worse than average this season even if I took out the stats of Oklahoma’s dynamic backup quarterback Caleb Williams (which I did), who torched the Longhorns for 212 yards on 25 pass plays and 88 yards on 4 runs last week. Oklahoma State, with a healthy receiving corps, has a 0.6 yppl advantage over the Texas defense.

The Texas offense has obviously been great since Casey Thompson took over at quarterback, as I had that unit rated at 1.4 yppl better than average before adjusting for the injury to Whittingham, which will have an impact on the pass attack. Thompson has leaned on two very good receivers in Whittingham (10.3 yards per target and 57% success rate) and Xavier Worthy, who has averaged 13.9 YPT and has a 58% success rate. Worthy can now be double-teamed more often because the rest of the receivers that have to fill in for Whittingham have combined for an average of just 6.2 YPT and a dismal 32% success rate. I’ll assume that Bijan Robinson (11.3 YPT on 15 targets) will get more passes thrown to him out of the backfield, which will help, but the difference between Whittingham and the rest of the Longhorns’ wide receivers is significant. The difference is 0.9 yards per pass play but I’ll assume that the backups will improve with more first-team reps in practice, and I ultimately made an adjustment of 0.45 yppp to the Texas offense, which results in 0.2 yppl. Texas is still 1.2 yppl better than average offensively (at best), but Oklahoma State’s defense is 1.2 yppl better than average too, having yielded just 4.9 yppl to FBS opponents that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team (adjusted for facing Kansas State’s backup QBs).

Oklahoma State is a better overall team than Texas and it certainly doesn’t hurt that the Cowboys had an extra week to prepare for this game after last week’s bye while Texas suffered an emotionally exhausting come-from-ahead loss to their biggest rival last week. That heartbreaking loss to Oklahoma could be tough to get over, as winning teams that suffer a close loss as an underdog in high-scoring game tend to struggle the following week. In fact, winning teams that lost by 7 or fewer points as a dog of 3 points or more while scoring more than 31 points in that loss are just 45-98-1 ATS in their next game, including 29-76-1 ATS facing a conference opponent.

Oklahoma State is a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 or more, 1-Star at +3.5 and a Strong Opinion at +3.

 

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Oklahoma St.
  • Texas
OKST
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 46.3 28.8
  • Run Yards 207.0 108.8
  • YPRP 4.5 3.8




Pass





  • Pass Comp 14.0 17.0
  • Pass Att 24.0 30.3
  • Comp % 58.3% 56.2%
  • Pass Yards 195.3 209.3
  • Sacks 1.5 2.8
  • Sack Yards 7.3 18.0
  • Sack % 5.9% 8.3%
  • Pass Plays 25.5 33.0
  • Net Pass Yards 188.0 191.3
  • YPPP 7.4 5.8

Total

  • Total Plays 71.8 61.8
  • Total Yards 395.0 300.0
  • YPPL 5.5 4.9

TO


  • Int 1.0 0.5
  • Int % 4.2% 1.7%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.5
  • Turnovers 1.3 1.0
 
  • Points 25.4 18.6
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