Game Analysis

Note: This game was released as a Best Bet before news of Oklahoma State’s star safety being out was announced on Thursday. It no longer qualifies at the current line and would not qualify now even if the line were still at +6.5 or +7. However, I still lean with Oklahoma State

Best Bet – *Oklahoma State (+7 at -115)  27   Texas A&M  29

Friday, December 27 – 3:45 pm Pacific

Texas A&M is the best 7-5 team in the nation, as all of their losses were to very good teams (Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, and LSU). However, Oklahoma State is a good team too and the Aggies didn’t beat a team as good as the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State’s offense is very good, as the Cowboys averaged 6.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. Running back Chuba Hubbard is a 1^st-Team All-American that ran for 1936 yards at 6.3 ypr and quarterback Spencer Sanders and backup Dru Brown combined for 7.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB). Sanders’ thumb has healed and he’ll probably start this game but Brown is expected to play as well and both quarterbacks rated about the same in compensated yards per pass play, so it really doesn’t matter to me who’s behind center. Top receiver Tylan Wallace missed the final 4 games and remains out but Braydon Johnson and Jordan McCray have really stepped up in his absence and their 10.66 combined yards per target is exactly the same as Wallace’s 10.66 YPT this season. Oklahoma State’s pass attack actually rated at 0.2 yards per pass play better in the 4 games without Wallace so I felt that there was no reason to downgrade the offense. The Cowboys’ attack (1.1 yppl better than average) has an advantage over an A&M defense that has been 0.9 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average team) but will be a bit worse without DT Justin Madubuike, who is sitting out to prepare for the NFL draft. The math projects 398 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Cowboys.

Texas A&M’s offense is nothing special, as the Aggies were 0.5 yppl better than average in the regular season (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and are worse than that heading into this bowl game with a depleted running back corps. The most notable absence is big-play back Cordarrian Richardson, who ran for 236 yards on just 25 runs. Taking those numbers out drops the A&M offensive rating to +0.4 yppl, which is the same as the Oklahoma State defense that yielded 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average team. The Cowboys allowed 27.0 points per game and their opponent’s average rating is the same as Texas A&M’s offensive rating – so I don’t expect the Aggies to run away with this game with their offense. Unfortunately, it was announced on Thursday that Oklahoma State’s star safety Kolby Harvell-Peel would not play in this game due to an injured knee. That’s a huge loss for the for Cowboys, as Harvell-Peel is an elite safety that had 5 interceptions and broke up 13 other passes this season while ranking 3^rd on the team in tackles. My algorithm projects his value at 0.4 yards per pass play and 1.5 points, which is a lot for a defensive player. The math now projects a mediocre 419 yards at 6.1 yppl for A&M in this game.

Oklahoma State is actually the better team from the line of scrimmage but A&M does have a 1.7 points edge in special teams and the math favors the Aggies by 2.6 points, with a total of 56.6 points. Oklahoma State was released as a 1-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more but would no longer qualify at the current line.