Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *OKLAHOMA (-7) 41   Oklahoma State  27

I proclaimed Oklahoma State as the most overrated team in the nation when the Cowboys were 5-0 and ranked in the top-10 and since then they’ve lost 3 of 5 games. Their mediocre defense has allowed an average of 40.5 points to the the 4 teams they’ve faced that are very good offensively (TCU, Texas, Kansas State, and Kansas) and Oklahoma falls into that category, as the Sooners are 1.1 yards per play better than average offensively with Dillon Gabriel behind center. Oklahoma is projected to gain 560 total yards at 6.9 yppl in this game.

Oklahoma State will also get plenty of possessions to score given the fast pace that both teams run their offense. However, Oklahoma’s defense rates at 0.6 yppl better than average while the Oklahoma State offense, with Spencer Sanders at quarterback, has been just average moving the ball (5.3 yppl with Sanders in the game against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team). The Cowboys are projected to gain 429 yards but at just 5.1 yppl.

Oklahoma State benefitted from a lot of positive variance in third-downs and red zone efficiency early in the season, which made them appear to be better than they were. Reality has hit and Oklahoma should cap off a disappointing season with a comfortable win over their rival.

Oklahoma is a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 at -12o odds or better and a Strong Opinion up to -8 points.