Game Analysis

Lean – Oklahoma State (-1)  33   Miami-Florida  30

The difference in this game is that Oklahoma State’s best player, WR Tylan Wallace, has said how important it is for him to play this game to go out the right way and not abandon his teammates, while Miami’s two most impactful defensive players have selfishly opted not to play in order to prepare for the NFL combine.

Wallace gets double-teamed consistently yet still managed to average 10.2 yards per target this season while averaging over 100 yards per game in this 8 games (he missed 2 games). Chuba Hubbard left the team before the end of the regular season but the Cowboys ran the ball better in 3 games without the 2019 All-American, as Hubbard only averaged 4.7 ypr this season while the other 3 backs all averaged 5.6 ypr or more. Number 3 back LD Brown may not play but Jackson and Richardson combined for 735 yards at 5.7 ypr so Brown’s availability isn’t a factor. Oklahoma State’s offense was 0.7 yppl better than average for the season (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) but I rate them at +0.8 yppl with Wallace playing and Hubbard gone.

Miami’s defense was mostly good this season until giving up 62 points on over 10 yards per play to North Carolina in their regular season finale. I’ll chalk that up as aberration and Miami’s defensive rating was 0.7 yppl better than average using a weighted median to dampen the affect of that outlier game versus UNC. However, Miami’s two dominant defensive linemen, Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche, have decided not to play and those two combined for 12.5 sacks and 30 total tackles for loss. The player with the third highest sack total on the team, Jared Harrison-Hunte (3 sacks) also may not play due to injury. The secondary is also weaker without top CB Al Blades, who was declared out for the season due to medical issues before the North Carolina debacle. My algorithm values those 3 players as worth 3.3 points and I project 503 total yards at 6.3 yppl for Oklahoma State in this game.

Miami’s offense is certainly capable of keeping up with dynamic quarterback D’Eriq King, who ran for nearly 700 yards at 7.2 yards per run and averaged 7.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp) while continuing his career pattern of avoiding turnovers (just 5 interceptions in 10 games). Miami’s running backs are below average but overall the Hurricanes were a bit better than average running the ball because of King’s contribution and they were 0.5 yppl better than average overall on offense. Oklahoma State’s defense has an advantage, as the Cowboys’ yielded just 22.4 points per game and 5.3 yppl (excluding garbage time) against teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. Miami is projected to gain 415 yards at 5.6 yppl.

Oklahoma State should have an advantage from the line of scrimmage, but quarterback Spencer Sanders is interception prone while King is not and the Hurricanes have very good special teams, including a kicker that made 18 of 20 field goals while making both kicks from 50-yards or more.

Overall, the math favors Oklahoma State by 3.3 points and I’ll lean with the Cowboys at -1 or better.