Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *OKLAHOMA STATE (-3.5)  30   Oklahoma  19

Rotation #212 – 4:30 pm Pacific

Oklahoma’s offense is better with dual-threat QB Caleb Williams behind center, as the Sooners have been 1.7 yards per play better than average with Williams in the game (relative to the defenses he’s faced and weighted by the plays against each defense), which is much better than the +0.6 yppl rating with Rattler at QB.

However, Oklahoma State has the nation’s second-best defense, as that unit has yielded just 14.8 points per game on 253 yards at 4.3 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defensive team. The Oklahoma State defense is better than the Oklahoma offense with Williams and the Sooners have averaged just 21 points the last two weeks against Baylor and Iowa State defenses that are good but are 1.2 yppl worse than the Oklahoma State defense.

Oklahoma State is nothing special on offense, as they rate at just 0.2 yppl better than average, but the Oklahoma defense is only 0.3 yppl better than average and Cowboys should score a decent number of points.

The yards per play projections for this game aren’t that significantly in favor of Oklahoma State (5.6 yppl to 5.0 yppl) but the Sooners’ boom or bust offense tends to have them running significantly fewer plays than their opponents (-4.6 in play differential) while Oklahoma State’s methodical offense and 3-and-out type of defense has the Cowboys averaging a +14.4 play differential. I project Oklahoma State to have 444 total yards to just 279 for Oklahoma in this game and the Cowboys also apply to a 75-17-2 ATS home favorite momentum situation. Oklahoma State is a 1-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and a Strong Opinion up to -5 points.