Game Analysis

Lean – Oklahoma (+6)  20   ALABAMA  22

Oklahoma has been every bit as good as Alabama has been this season.

The Sooners have been 0.5 yards per play better than average on offense with John Mateer at quarterback (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team) while their defense has been the best in the nation in compensated yards per play allowed (4.4 yppl allowed to FBS teams, excluding Kent State and their backup QB, that would average 6.4 yppl against an average defense). That’s 2.5 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage overall, which ranks them 10th in the nation.

Alabama’s offense has been 0.9 yppl better than average (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) while the Tide defense has been 1.1 yppl better than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.3 yppl). That’s 2.0 yppl better than average overall, ranking Alabama at #16 in the nation in that metric.

Alabama’s overall performance has been enhanced by their +10 turnover margin but that +1.1 TO margin per game is likely to regress towards the mean a bit (+0.5 turnover margin projected in this game) and the Crimson Tide defense has had problems with running quarterbacks. The defense has allowed 328 rush yards on 55 runs (6.0 yprp) to the 5 teams they’ve faced with mobile quarterbacks that they’ve faced (FSU, Georgia, Vandy, Missouri, and S. Carolina) and Mateer has run for 402 yards so far this season (not including sacks, which I count as pass plays).

I’d prefer to take the points (+6 or more is a Lean) with the defensively elite Sooners.