Game Analysis

Ohio (-2.5)  24   Wyoming  23

Ohio is without their star quarterback while Wyoming is without their top 4 running backs and two key defensive players. After all the adjustments I came up pretty close to the market line of Ohio by 2.5.

Ohio’s Kurtis Rourke has a great season, averaging 8.5 yards per pass play with 25 touchdown passes against just 4 interceptions. However, Rourke missed the final two and a half games and will miss this game too. Backup CJ Harris completed just 53% of his passes the final 3 games filling in for Rourke and averaged a modest 6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team. The Bobcats’ offense was 0.5 yppl better than average with Rourke but that unit is 0.6 yppl worse than average with Harris at quarterback.

Ohio has run more often with Harris at quarterback and I expect they’ll do the same here against a Wyoming defense that was 0.4 yards per rushing play worse than average during the season but they were average against the pass. That pass defense is likely to be worse without top cornerback Cam Stone and edge rusher Oluwaseyi Omotosho, who was second on the team in sacks (6.5 in 11 games) and led the team in quarterback hurries. Wyoming’s defense was 0.2 yards per play worse than average in the regular season but I rate that unit at 0.4 yppl worse than average heading into this game and project Ohio to gain 363 yards at 5.7 yppl.

Wyoming’s offense is based on the success of the rushing attack and the top 3 backs combined for 1741 yards at 5.6 ypr. However, all 3 of those backs will not be playing in this game and the #4 running back on the depth chart is also out. Wyoming’s run game has been better than average on a national scale for 5 straight seasons and is just as much about the offensive line and the scheme as it is the ball carriers. However, the Cowboys will have a very inexperienced running back getting a lot of carries in this game. I do expect quarterback Andrew Peasley to run the ball more than usual, which should help make up some of the difference. Peasley has been a great runner throughout his career as a backup, as he’d run for 570 yards on 48 runs coming into this season. I thought he’d run more than he did during the regular season but he averaged just 5 runs per game despite averaging 8.2 yards per scramble. I would not be surprised if Peasley runs the ball 10 to 15 times in this game, as that is certainly a better option than having him throw it more (he averaged just 4.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback).

Ohio is 0.7 yprp worse than average defending the run and they were 0.9 yppp worse than average against the pass in the 11 games that top cornerback Zack Sanders played. I would have projected 6.3 yprp for the Cowboys with all their backs available and I still project 5.7 yprp with Peasley likely to run more. Wyoming is projected to gain 318 yards at 5.6 yppl.

Overall, my math falls right on market as far as the side is concerned, as I favor Ohio by 2.5 points. I do predict 47 total points, which is considerably higher than the 41.5 points total, but there is a lot of variance in that prediction, as it’s hard to say what Wyoming’s #5 back will produce.