Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved significantly since releasing this play on Monday morning. Western Michigan is a Strong Opinion at -1.5 (Best Bet at -1 or better).

1-Star Best Bet – *WESTERN MICHIGAN (+2)  27   Ohio  20

Western Michigan has been an underrated team all season – and particularly since turning to Broc Lowry as their starting quarterback. Brady Jones, the opening day starter, has averaged a horrific 2.4 yards on 44 pass plays, which brought down the team’s rating. The offense still isn’t good with Lowry, as they rate at 0.9 yards per play worse than average. However, Ohio’s defense has been 1.0 yppl worse than average against FBS opponents this season (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team). The Bobcats appear to be better than that because they’ve been oddly good in the redzone despite being a bad defensive team overall.

Ohio does have a good offense by MAC standards, rating at 0.1 yppl better than average (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team), but Western Michigan has a good defense on a national scale. The Broncos have yielded just 19 points per game with less than 300 total yards allowed per game at 5.0 yppl while facing teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average FBS defense.

Western Michigan is clearly the better team from the line of scrimmage, and the Broncos have much better special teams. It’s likely that Ohio’s good redzone performance is more luck than real – although a compensated points model would still favor the Broncos as the right side in this game.

Western Michigan is a 1-Star Best Bet at -1 or better (Strong Opinion to -2).