Game Analysis

Ohio State (-6)  27   Wisconsin  21

Wisconsin’s perfect record has been under scrutiny because they haven’t faced any elite teams until today, but there is no doubt that the Badgers are an elite team and they beat quality teams Northwestern, Iowa, and Michigan by an average of 16 points. Ohio State lost by 31 points to Iowa and split two games against elite teams (lost by 15 at home to Oklahoma and beat Penn State by 1 in a game they actually dominated). Ohio State actually rates as the better team in my ratings and the Buckeyes’ offense has performed very well against good defensive teams – averaging 6.9 yards per play against Indiana, Penn State, Iowa, Michigan State, and Michigan. It’s unlikely that the Buckeyes are that good in this game but they should certainly outgain Wisconsin. The Badgers have an efficient offense (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) but that attack is at a disadvantage against an elite Buckeyes’ stop unit that rates at 1.6 yppl better than average (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense). My math model favors Ohio State by 6 points so I don’t see any value in this game. Keep in mind that Wisconsin is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog.