Game Analysis
Ohio State (-12) 38 PURDUE 31
Ohio State has an elite passing quarterback in Dwayne Haskins and very good special teams. That’s it. The rest of the components (run offense, run defense, pass defense) are mediocre for the Buckeyes. Ohio State is actually a below average running team (5.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.9 yprp to an average team) while being slightly worse than average defending both the run (5.8 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yprp against an average team) and the pass (5.7 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.6 yppp). Hawkins has been great, however, averaging 9.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback and the Buckeyes are throwing the ball 4o times per game, which has been enough to keep them unbeaten despite their flaws in other areas.
Purdue won’t be able to stop Haskins from being just as good as he’s been all season but the Boilermakers have a very good offense that’s averaged 6.9 yards per play in 6 games against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, and they should be able to score a good number of points against a mediocre Ohio State defense. One thing the Buckeyes’ defense has been good at is bending but not breaking, as they’ve only allowed 19.1 points per game despite allowing 5.8 yppl. However, a lot of that discrepancy is surely random and my math favors the Buckeyes by just 10 points in this game.
I’m calling for an even close game because Purdue has my highest technical analysis rating, applying to a 46-8-1 ATS subset of a 130-52-2 ATS situation while Ohio State applies to a 12-46 ATS unbeaten road favorite situation.
Rush
-
Run Plays
38.6
30.9
-
Run Yards
188.7
154.3
-
YPRP
5.1
5.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
28.3
16.3
-
Pass Att
38.6
30.6
-
Comp %
73.3%
53.3%
-
Pass Yards
371.4
220.7
-
Sacks
1.6
3.7
-
Sack Yards
7.3
24.3
-
Sack %
3.9%
10.8%
-
Pass Plays
40.1
34.3
-
Net Pass Yards
364.1
196.4
-
YPPP
9.1
5.7
Total
-
Total Plays
78.7
65.1
-
Total Yards
560.1
375.0
-
YPPL
7.1
5.8
TO
-
Int
0.6
0.9
-
Int %
1.5%
2.8%
-
Fumbles
0.3
1.0
-
Turnovers
0.9
1.9
Rush
-
Run Plays
31.5
33.3
-
Run Yards
180.2
149.0
-
YPRP
6.1
5.1
Pass
-
Pass Comp
25.7
21.0
-
Pass Att
38.7
35.5
-
Comp %
66.4%
59.2%
-
Pass Yards
316.8
271.0
-
Sacks
2.0
2.8
-
Sack Yards
12.8
19.5
-
Sack %
4.9%
7.4%
-
Pass Plays
40.7
38.3
-
Net Pass Yards
304.0
251.5
-
YPPP
7.5
6.6
Total
-
Total Plays
72.2
71.7
-
Total Yards
497.0
420.0
-
YPPL
6.9
5.9
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.3
-
Int %
2.1%
3.7%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.0
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/01/18 Oregon St. |
77-31 |
-38.5
W
|
52/32 |
377/261 |
7.3/8.2 |
1/2 |
25/14 |
34/24 |
346/153 |
1/0 |
0/5 |
10.2/5.3 |
723/414 |
8.4/6.8 |
09/08/18 Rutgers |
52-3 |
-34.5
W
|
38/28 |
234/97 |
6.2/3.5 |
0/0 |
30/11 |
33/30 |
345/37 |
0/2 |
2/3 |
9.9/1.1 |
579/134 |
7.9/2.2 |
09/15/18 @ TCU |
40-28 |
-12.5
L
|
39/32 |
188/228 |
4.8/7.1 |
0/1 |
24/24 |
38/40 |
343/285 |
0/2 |
1/3 |
8.8/6.6 |
531/513 |
6.8/6.8 |
09/22/18 Tulane |
49-6 |
-37.0
W
|
35/35 |
162/145 |
4.6/4.1 |
0/0 |
31/10 |
38/16 |
407/118 |
0/0 |
3/6 |
9.9/5.4 |
569/263 |
7.5/4.6 |
09/29/18 @ Penn St. |
27-26 |
-3.5
L
|
32/40 |
134/237 |
4.2/5.9 |
0/1 |
22/16 |
39/32 |
268/268 |
1/0 |
1/4 |
6.7/7.4 |
402/505 |
5.6/6.6 |
10/06/18 Indiana |
49-26 |
-26.0
L
|
45/18 |
166/95 |
3.7/5.3 |
1/2 |
33/26 |
44/49 |
447/313 |
2/0 |
1/3 |
9.9/6.0 |
613/408 |
6.8/5.8 |
10/13/18 Minnesota |
30-14 |
-30.0
L
|
29/31 |
111/187 |
3.8/6.0 |
0/1 |
33/13 |
44/23 |
393/201 |
0/2 |
3/2 |
8.4/8.0 |
504/388 |
6.6/6.9 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/30/18 Northwestern |
27-31 |
-1.0
L
|
23/40 |
210/176 |
9.1/4.4 |
0/0 |
30/23 |
46/37 |
262/235 |
3/0 |
2/0 |
5.5/6.4 |
472/411 |
6.6/5.3 |
09/08/18 Eastern Mich |
19-20 |
-17.0
L
|
41/24 |
346/93 |
8.4/3.9 |
2/0 |
14/22 |
24/33 |
131/321 |
0/1 |
1/6 |
5.2/8.2 |
477/414 |
7.2/6.6 |
09/15/18 Missouri |
37-40 |
+6.5
W
|
15/43 |
53/255 |
3.5/5.9 |
0/0 |
38/26 |
55/43 |
491/359 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
8.8/8.2 |
544/614 |
7.7/7.1 |
09/22/18 Boston College |
30-13 |
+7.0
W
|
35/30 |
116/111 |
3.3/3.7 |
2/0 |
21/15 |
28/29 |
246/118 |
0/4 |
5/4 |
7.5/3.6 |
362/229 |
5.3/3.6 |
09/29/18 @ Nebraska |
42-28 |
-3.0
W
|
36/36 |
190/277 |
5.3/7.7 |
0/0 |
25/25 |
42/42 |
326/312 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
7.6/7.1 |
516/589 |
6.5/7.4 |
10/13/18 @ Illinois |
46-7 |
-10.5
W
|
39/27 |
243/99 |
6.2/3.7 |
0/0 |
26/15 |
37/29 |
368/164 |
1/1 |
2/4 |
9.4/5.0 |
611/263 |
7.8/4.4 |