(2) Ohio St. @

Purdue

Sat, Oct 20
ABC
4:30 PM Pacific
WatchESPN
Rotation: 333
Odds: Purdue +12, Total: 68.5

Game Analysis

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Ohio State (-12)  38   PURDUE  31

Ohio State has an elite passing quarterback in Dwayne Haskins and very good special teams. That’s it. The rest of the components (run offense, run defense, pass defense) are mediocre for the Buckeyes. Ohio State is actually a below average running team (5.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.9 yprp to an average team) while being slightly worse than average defending both the run (5.8 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yprp against an average team) and the pass (5.7 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.6 yppp). Hawkins has been great, however, averaging 9.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback and the Buckeyes are throwing the ball 4o times per game, which has been enough to keep them unbeaten despite their flaws in other areas.

Purdue won’t be able to stop Haskins from being just as good as he’s been all season but the Boilermakers have a very good offense that’s averaged 6.9 yards per play in 6 games against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, and they should be able to score a good number of points against a mediocre Ohio State defense. One thing the Buckeyes’ defense has been good at is bending but not breaking, as they’ve only allowed 19.1 points per game despite allowing 5.8 yppl. However, a lot of that discrepancy is surely random and my math favors the Buckeyes by just 10 points in this game.

I’m calling for an even close game because Purdue has my highest technical analysis rating, applying to a 46-8-1 ATS subset of a 130-52-2 ATS situation while Ohio State applies to a 12-46 ATS unbeaten road favorite situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Ohio St.
  • Purdue
OHST
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 38.6 30.9
  • Run Yards 188.7 154.3
  • YPRP 5.1 5.8




Pass





  • Pass Comp 28.3 16.3
  • Pass Att 38.6 30.6
  • Comp % 73.3% 53.3%
  • Pass Yards 371.4 220.7
  • Sacks 1.6 3.7
  • Sack Yards 7.3 24.3
  • Sack % 3.9% 10.8%
  • Pass Plays 40.1 34.3
  • Net Pass Yards 364.1 196.4
  • YPPP 9.1 5.7

Total

  • Total Plays 78.7 65.1
  • Total Yards 560.1 375.0
  • YPPL 7.1 5.8

TO


  • Int 0.6 0.9
  • Int % 1.5% 2.8%
  • Fumbles 0.3 1.0
  • Turnovers 0.9 1.9
 
  • Points 46.3 19.1
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