Game Analysis
Ohio State (-18) 37 PENN STATE 22
The line on this game is fair, as my math model also favors Ohio State by 19 ½ points. However, Penn State applies to a few strong big home underdog situations, including a 123-49-5 situation that is 44-7 ATS when applying to underdogs of 14 points or more. I’ll lean with the Nittany Lions based on that angle.
Rush
-
Run Plays
48.5
34.5
-
Run Yards
303.3
126.0
-
YPRP
6.3
4.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.7
14.3
-
Pass Att
27.5
30.0
-
Comp %
64.3%
47.8%
-
Pass Yards
216.0
159.5
-
Sacks
0.8
2.5
-
Sack Yards
4.2
20.2
-
Sack %
2.9%
7.7%
-
Pass Plays
28.3
32.5
-
Net Pass Yards
211.8
139.3
-
YPPP
7.5
4.3
Total
-
Total Plays
76.8
67.0
-
Total Yards
519.3
285.5
-
YPPL
6.8
4.3
TO
-
Int
0.7
1.8
-
Int %
2.4%
6.1%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.0
2.3
Rush
-
Run Plays
34.0
39.3
-
Run Yards
158.2
211.5
-
YPRP
5.2
5.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.2
17.5
-
Pass Att
29.5
28.0
-
Comp %
58.2%
62.5%
-
Pass Yards
239.3
172.7
-
Sacks
2.5
2.7
-
Sack Yards
17.8
18.0
-
Sack %
7.8%
8.7%
-
Pass Plays
32.0
30.7
-
Net Pass Yards
221.5
154.7
-
YPPP
6.9
5.0
Total
-
Total Plays
66.0
70.0
-
Total Yards
397.5
384.2
-
YPPL
6.0
5.5
TO
-
Int
0.5
1.0
-
Int %
1.7%
3.6%
-
Fumbles
1.3
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.8
1.5
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/16 Bowling Green |
77-10 |
-28.0
W
|
55/26 |
362/92 |
6.6/3.5 |
0/0 |
27/21 |
39/44 |
417/152 |
1/3 |
0/2 |
10.7/3.3 |
779/244 |
8.3/3.4 |
| 09/10/16 Tulsa |
48-3 |
-28.0
W
|
46/34 |
277/98 |
6.0/2.9 |
1/2 |
14/15 |
22/32 |
145/109 |
0/4 |
1/2 |
6.3/3.2 |
422/207 |
6.1/3.0 |
| 09/17/16 @ Oklahoma |
45-24 |
-1.0
W
|
45/32 |
303/204 |
6.7/6.4 |
0/0 |
14/17 |
20/32 |
144/200 |
0/2 |
1/3 |
6.9/5.7 |
447/404 |
6.8/6.0 |
| 10/01/16 Rutgers |
58-0 |
-38.0
W
|
53/34 |
410/110 |
7.7/3.2 |
0/0 |
25/3 |
34/16 |
259/15 |
1/0 |
0/3 |
7.6/0.8 |
669/125 |
7.7/2.4 |
| 10/08/16 Indiana |
38-17 |
-28.0
L
|
49/39 |
296/103 |
6.0/2.6 |
1/1 |
9/14 |
21/28 |
92/180 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
4.2/6.2 |
388/283 |
5.5/4.2 |
| 10/15/16 @ Wisconsin |
30-23 |
-10.5
L
|
43/42 |
197/270 |
4.6/6.4 |
0/0 |
17/16 |
29/28 |
214/180 |
1/1 |
2/4 |
6.9/5.6 |
411/450 |
5.6/6.1 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/16 Kent State |
33-13 |
-22.0
L
|
36/34 |
163/211 |
4.5/6.2 |
1/1 |
16/14 |
31/28 |
198/75 |
0/2 |
1/7 |
6.2/2.1 |
361/286 |
5.3/4.1 |
| 09/10/16 @ Pittsburgh |
39-42 |
+4.5
W
|
26/53 |
108/340 |
4.2/6.4 |
3/1 |
24/11 |
35/15 |
293/91 |
1/1 |
5/0 |
7.3/6.1 |
401/431 |
6.1/6.3 |
| 09/17/16 Temple |
34-27 |
-8.5
L
|
34/25 |
147/57 |
4.3/2.3 |
2/0 |
18/25 |
24/34 |
287/267 |
1/1 |
0/3 |
12.0/7.2 |
434/324 |
7.5/5.2 |
| 09/24/16 @ Michigan |
10-49 |
+19.0
L
|
22/46 |
97/330 |
4.4/7.2 |
1/0 |
16/21 |
27/35 |
94/189 |
1/0 |
6/0 |
2.8/5.4 |
191/519 |
3.5/6.4 |
| 10/01/16 Minnesota |
29-26 |
-2.5
W
|
28/46 |
136/236 |
4.9/5.1 |
0/0 |
19/24 |
41/40 |
335/233 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
8.2/5.5 |
471/469 |
6.8/5.3 |
| 10/08/16 Maryland |
38-14 |
+2.5
W
|
58/32 |
405/203 |
7.0/6.3 |
1/1 |
10/10 |
19/16 |
122/73 |
0/1 |
3/4 |
5.5/3.7 |
527/276 |
6.6/5.3 |
Penn St.