Game Analysis

Ohio State (-2.5)  27   Oregon  26

Ohio State’s offense averaged 36 points and 7.1 yards per play (with QB Howard in the game) against a schedule of opponents that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. I rate that unit a bit worse for the season (at +1.5 yppl) after adjusting for the outliers against Marshall (10.5 yppl) and on the low side against Michigan (4.3 yppl). The Buckeyes had one of their best performances in the first meeting with Oregon, averaging 7.1 yppl against a Ducks’ defense that would yield just 4.5 yppl at home to an average FBS attack. However, their performances against other very good defenses were mixed (great against Tennessee but just 5.8 yppl against Penn State and Indiana).

Ohio State has lost two elite offensive linemen in LT Josh Simmons (after 6 games) and C Seth McLaughlin. The run game got a bit worse when Simmons went down, and the Buckeyes have averaged just 4.1 yards per rushing play in 3 games without McLaughlin (although vs 3 teams that would allow just 4.0 yprp to an average team). I don’t think the run game is as bad as that, but I do value the OL losses as worth 0.3 YPRP, which equates to 0.9 points. The pass protection and pass attack have been equally good without those two linemen.

The Buckeyes should still be able to run the ball against an Oregon defense that was just 0.1 yards per rushing play better than average defending the run (5.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yprp against an average defense) and the Ducks just gave up 303 ground yards at 9.2 yprp to Penn State in the Big 10 Championship game. That’s obviously an outlier, but I project 172 rush yards at 5.4 yprp and 387 total yards at 6.2 yppl for the Buckeyes in this game (adjusted for good weather expected, just 3 to 4 mph winds).

Oregon’s offense was just as good as the Ohio State offense, as the Ducks averaged 36 points on 6.8 yppl while facing teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. The passing numbers weren’t as good in the two games without top WR Tez Johnson and I’ve adjusted for that in my model. The Ohio State defense is the best in the nation, as the Buckeyes yielded just 11.4 points per game and 4.2 yppl to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. However, Oregon torched that defense for 32 points on 496 yards at 7.6 yppl. That’s likely not going to happen again, as I project 377 total yards at 5.8 yppl for the Ducks in this game.

Oregon is a bit better in special teams and the math favors Ohio State by 1.1 points with 53.0 total points. The opening line was also Ohio State by 1 and has gone up a bit. Despite what appears to be a bit of value on the Ducks my feeling is that Ohio State is the better team, and I want no part of this game.