Game Analysis
Ohio State (-27) 38 NORTHWESTERN 8
Ohio State is one back-door touchdown against their defensive backups away from being a perfect 6-0 ATS and my model thinks the Buckeyes are still a bit underrated. Northwestern has a very good defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense) but my model projects 38 points for Ohio State in this game. That’s a reasonable number given that the Buckeyes have averaged 38 points against the two other good defensive teams they’ve faced, scoring 42 against Ciny and 34 against Michigan State.
Ohio State has allowed just 8.8 points per game and Northwestern is feeble offensively (just 14.4 points per game and 4.0 yppl) but there is some potential of garbage time factored into their 8 points projection – although I can certainly see the Wildcats held to 3 points or less while the Buckeyes’ starters are in the game. There isn’t enough value for me to play this game but I’ll lean with Ohio State.
Rush
-
Run Plays
38.6
29.9
-
Run Yards
196.3
141.8
-
YPRP
5.4
5.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
26.6
20.4
-
Pass Att
38.1
36.2
-
Comp %
69.8%
56.3%
-
Pass Yards
334.3
239.1
-
Sacks
1.8
3.0
-
Sack Yards
10.5
18.8
-
Sack %
4.6%
7.8%
-
Pass Plays
39.9
39.2
-
Net Pass Yards
323.8
220.3
-
YPPP
8.1
5.6
Total
-
Total Plays
78.5
69.1
-
Total Yards
530.5
380.9
-
YPPL
6.8
5.5
TO
-
Int
0.5
0.9
-
Int %
1.4%
2.5%
-
Fumbles
0.9
0.9
-
Turnovers
1.4
1.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
34.4
32.0
-
Run Yards
130.2
130.9
-
YPRP
4.3
4.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.2
22.9
-
Pass Att
34.2
36.0
-
Comp %
58.9%
63.7%
-
Pass Yards
208.7
252.6
-
Sacks
2.5
1.8
-
Sack Yards
18.0
10.3
-
Sack %
6.8%
4.9%
-
Pass Plays
36.7
37.8
-
Net Pass Yards
190.7
242.3
-
YPPP
5.2
6.4
Total
-
Total Plays
71.1
69.9
-
Total Yards
338.9
383.5
-
YPPL
4.8
5.5
TO
-
Int
1.3
0.8
-
Int %
3.7%
2.2%
-
Fumbles
0.3
1.3
-
Turnovers
1.6
2.1
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 10/06/18 Indiana |
49-26 |
-26.0
L
|
45/18 |
166/95 |
3.7/5.3 |
1/2 |
33/26 |
44/49 |
447/313 |
2/0 |
1/3 |
9.9/6.0 |
613/408 |
6.8/5.8 |
| 10/13/18 Minnesota |
30-14 |
-30.0
L
|
29/31 |
111/187 |
3.8/6.0 |
0/1 |
33/13 |
44/23 |
393/201 |
0/2 |
3/2 |
8.4/8.0 |
504/388 |
6.6/6.9 |
| 10/20/18 @ Purdue |
20-49 |
-13.0
L
|
24/27 |
78/175 |
3.3/6.5 |
0/0 |
49/25 |
73/43 |
468/361 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
6.3/8.0 |
546/536 |
5.6/7.4 |
| 11/03/18 Nebraska |
36-31 |
-20.5
L
|
36/48 |
250/212 |
6.9/4.4 |
2/1 |
18/22 |
32/33 |
243/259 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
7.4/7.6 |
493/471 |
7.1/5.7 |
| 11/10/18 @ Michigan St. |
26-6 |
-3.5
W
|
40/14 |
146/78 |
3.7/5.6 |
1/2 |
24/18 |
39/48 |
216/214 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
5.3/4.4 |
362/292 |
4.5/4.6 |
| 11/17/18 @ Maryland |
52-51 |
-16.5
L
|
55/43 |
281/379 |
5.1/8.8 |
2/1 |
28/7 |
38/14 |
401/168 |
1/0 |
1/4 |
10.3/9.3 |
682/547 |
7.3/9.0 |
| 11/24/18 Michigan |
62-39 |
+4.5
W
|
35/37 |
255/177 |
7.3/4.8 |
1/0 |
19/23 |
30/38 |
318/224 |
0/2 |
0/3 |
10.6/5.5 |
573/401 |
8.8/5.1 |
| 12/01/18 Northwestern |
45-24 |
-14.5
W
|
40/19 |
142/172 |
3.6/9.1 |
1/1 |
34/27 |
41/44 |
474/232 |
1/2 |
4/5 |
10.5/4.7 |
616/404 |
7.2/5.9 |
| 01/01/19 Washington |
28-23 |
-6.5
L
|
27/33 |
134/143 |
5.0/4.3 |
0/0 |
25/36 |
37/55 |
235/302 |
0/0 |
3/2 |
5.9/5.3 |
369/445 |
5.5/4.9 |
| 08/31/19 Florida Atl. |
45-21 |
-27.5
L
|
45/29 |
257/67 |
5.7/2.3 |
2/0 |
19/26 |
26/40 |
236/110 |
0/1 |
2/4 |
8.4/2.5 |
493/177 |
6.8/2.4 |
| 09/07/19 Cincinnati |
42-0 |
-15.5
W
|
44/29 |
276/83 |
6.3/2.9 |
0/1 |
22/13 |
27/23 |
240/155 |
0/1 |
1/5 |
8.6/5.5 |
516/238 |
7.2/4.2 |
| 09/14/19 @ Indiana |
51-10 |
-18.0
W
|
39/26 |
326/73 |
8.4/2.8 |
1/0 |
17/21 |
29/36 |
233/185 |
0/1 |
1/5 |
7.8/4.5 |
559/258 |
8.1/3.9 |
| 09/21/19 Miami Ohio |
76-5 |
-38.5
W
|
40/36 |
238/93 |
6.0/2.6 |
1/2 |
22/7 |
30/20 |
299/73 |
0/1 |
2/5 |
9.3/2.9 |
537/166 |
7.5/2.7 |
| 09/28/19 @ Nebraska |
48-7 |
-17.0
W
|
49/35 |
392/207 |
8.0/5.9 |
0/0 |
15/8 |
21/17 |
191/24 |
0/3 |
3/4 |
8.0/1.1 |
583/231 |
8.0/4.1 |
| 10/05/19 Michigan St. |
34-10 |
-20.0
W
|
46/22 |
346/95 |
7.5/4.3 |
1/2 |
17/20 |
25/38 |
183/193 |
1/1 |
3/4 |
6.5/4.6 |
529/288 |
7.1/4.5 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 10/06/18 @ Michigan St. |
29-19 |
+10.0
W
|
17/22 |
22/108 |
1.3/4.9 |
0/0 |
31/31 |
47/51 |
361/317 |
2/1 |
1/2 |
7.5/6.0 |
383/425 |
5.9/5.7 |
| 10/13/18 Nebraska |
34-31 |
-5.5
L
|
21/45 |
45/249 |
2.1/5.5 |
0/1 |
41/25 |
64/35 |
442/244 |
2/2 |
2/1 |
6.7/6.8 |
487/493 |
5.6/6.1 |
| 10/20/18 @ Rutgers |
18-15 |
-20.5
L
|
41/24 |
164/124 |
4.0/5.2 |
1/0 |
17/15 |
34/31 |
125/64 |
0/0 |
4/2 |
3.3/1.9 |
289/188 |
3.7/3.3 |
| 10/27/18 Wisconsin |
31-17 |
+3.5
W
|
46/31 |
185/170 |
4.0/5.5 |
0/3 |
17/20 |
30/31 |
166/153 |
3/0 |
1/1 |
5.4/4.8 |
351/323 |
4.6/5.1 |
| 11/03/18 Notre Dame |
21-31 |
+10.0
T
|
35/37 |
133/136 |
3.8/3.7 |
0/1 |
16/22 |
29/34 |
118/343 |
0/0 |
5/0 |
3.5/10.1 |
251/479 |
3.6/6.7 |
| 11/10/18 @ Iowa |
14-10 |
+10.0
W
|
41/21 |
204/65 |
5.0/3.1 |
0/2 |
15/27 |
30/41 |
109/265 |
2/0 |
2/1 |
3.4/6.3 |
313/330 |
4.3/5.2 |
| 11/17/18 @ Minnesota |
24-14 |
-2.0
W
|
37/31 |
118/133 |
3.2/4.3 |
0/1 |
15/19 |
21/32 |
207/173 |
0/2 |
2/4 |
9.0/4.8 |
325/306 |
5.4/4.6 |
| 11/24/18 Illinois |
24-16 |
-16.5
L
|
43/32 |
276/149 |
6.4/4.7 |
0/0 |
12/23 |
18/39 |
99/286 |
0/1 |
1/0 |
5.2/7.3 |
375/435 |
6.0/6.1 |
| 12/01/18 @ Ohio St. |
24-45 |
+14.5
L
|
19/40 |
172/142 |
9.1/3.6 |
1/1 |
27/34 |
44/41 |
232/474 |
2/1 |
5/4 |
4.7/10.5 |
404/616 |
5.9/7.2 |
| 12/31/18 @ Utah |
31-20 |
+7.0
W
|
33/29 |
105/108 |
3.2/3.7 |
0/4 |
21/27 |
30/45 |
223/286 |
1/2 |
2/3 |
7.0/6.0 |
328/394 |
5.0/5.1 |
| 08/31/19 @ Stanford |
7-17 |
+6.0
L
|
30/38 |
128/139 |
4.3/3.7 |
2/2 |
12/23 |
27/34 |
95/230 |
2/0 |
3/1 |
3.2/6.6 |
223/369 |
3.7/5.1 |
| 09/14/19 UNLV |
30-14 |
-17.5
L
|
47/31 |
285/229 |
6.1/7.4 |
0/2 |
12/16 |
25/26 |
158/107 |
1/1 |
1/5 |
6.1/3.5 |
443/336 |
6.1/5.4 |
| 09/21/19 Michigan St. |
10-31 |
+8.0
L
|
41/37 |
141/120 |
3.4/3.2 |
0/1 |
19/18 |
37/31 |
102/220 |
3/0 |
2/2 |
2.6/6.7 |
243/340 |
3.0/4.9 |
| 09/28/19 @ Wisconsin |
15-24 |
+24.5
W
|
36/32 |
146/139 |
4.1/4.3 |
2/1 |
18/15 |
41/24 |
113/107 |
1/1 |
5/1 |
2.5/4.3 |
259/246 |
3.2/4.3 |
| 10/05/19 @ Nebraska |
10-13 |
+7.0
W
|
40/39 |
158/135 |
4.0/3.5 |
0/0 |
19/15 |
32/25 |
135/184 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
4.1/7.1 |
293/319 |
4.0/4.9 |
Northwestern