Game Analysis

Note: This game was released as a Strong Opinion Under (60) but I upgraded it to a Best Bet when the line got up to 62.5. I also had Ohio as a lean at -7.5 and that line moved up to -10.

Best Bet – *Under (62.5) – Ohio  33   Nevada  21

My math liked Ohio in this game even before accounting for Nevada’s 4 suspended defensive starters, and I still like the under despite those suspensions, as I thought the line opened too high, was bet up a bit and then adjusted 2 more points after news of the suspensions broke (I also calculate a 2 point adjustment).

Ohio’s offense is good, even on a national scale, as veteran dual-threat quarterback Nathan Rourke led an attack that averaged 443 yards per game at 6.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team. Nevada’s defense has allowed an average of 6.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense (adjusted for facing Purdue with Sindelar at quarterback). The defense is going to be worse with 4 starters suspended for taking part in a brawl at the end of the UNLV game. Those players are LB Gabriel Sewell, S Austin Arnold, CB Daniel Brown, and DT Hausia Sekona. Brown led the team in passes defended with 9 despite missing 2 games and Sewell is second on the team in tackles for loss, Reserve CB Berdale Robins should be able to fill in nicely for Brown, as Robins defended 7 passes as a backup and had an interception in each of the two games that Brown missed. But, I still calculate that the Nevada will be 0.35 yards per play worse defensively, which equates to about 2 points. Ohio is projected to gain 425 yards at 6.9 yards per play.

Nevada’s offense is in the hands of Carson Strong, who tends to settle for short passes and averaged just 9.4 yards per completion and 5.2 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback. Strong’s compensated numbers are 0.33 yppp worse than the team’s average and the Wolf Pack are 1.4 yards per play worse than average offensively with Strong behind center. Ohio’s defense struggled most of the season, allowing 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense, but the Bobcats are better with freshman linebacker Keye Thompson starting alongside top tackler (in tackles per game) Jared Dorsa. Thompson barely played the first half of the season but he filled in when Dorsa was injured (he missed nearly 3 full games) and the freshman was so good that he started the rest of the season and averaged 8 tackles per game in his 6 starts. Ohio’s run defense was 0.55 yards per rushing play worse than average for the season but the Bobcats were 1.7 yprp worse than average in the 3 games that Dorsa missed and were 0.5 yprp better than average against the run in the 4 games that Dorsa and Thompson both played after Dorsa returned from injury (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average defense). To be conservative I just used the Bobcats’ run defense rating in the 9 games with Dorsa, which is 0.2 yprp worse than average, but there is certainly evidence to suggest that they are better than average against the run based on those last 4 games with their current set of starting linebackers. Nevada is a horrible running team and Strong’s short pass game isn’t well suited to fully exploit Ohio’s usually bad pass defense. The math projects 342 yards at 5.1 yppl for the Wolf Pack in this game.

Overall, the math favors Ohio by 13.3 points with a total of 54.1 points. I’ll just lean with Ohio given that favorites of more than 7 points in minor bowls are generally not good bets, but there is value on the under and teams that went over the total is their previous 3 games are 62-36-1 Under in their bowl game at totals of more than 45 points. Ohio comes into this game on an over streak that could be one of the reasons the total on this game is too high. I’ll consider the Under a 1-Star Best Bet at 61 points or higher.