Game Analysis

Note: The line was -4 points when I released this lean earlier this week and I wouldn’t play it now at -6.5.

Lean – Ohio (-4)  33   Jacksonville State  25

Jacksonville State averaged 35.7 points per game with a run-oriented attack that averaged 440 yards at 6.4 yards per play from week 2 on after Tyler Huff took over at quarterback. Huff is a decent passer but his value is in his running, as he tallied 1462 yards on 199 runs. The Gamecocks were just 0.1 yppl better than average offensively with Huff after accounting for defenses faced and Ohio’s defense is better than nearly all the teams that Huff faced and in the same range as Louisiana Tech and Sam Houston State, who held the Jax State to a combined 4.4 yppl. The Bobcats defense rates as average on a national scale but their run defense is the strength of the unit (4.3 yprp allowed), which is key in defending the Gamecocks.

Ohio’s offense is similar, as the Bobcats have a dual-threat quarterback in Parker Navarro, who is a better passer than Huff and also topped 1,000 yards on the ground at 7.8 yards per run, which is actually better than Huff’s 7.3 yprp. The Bobcats’ attack is average on a national scale but they have the advantage in this game. Jacksonville State’s defense was 0.4 yppl worse than average in the regular season and they have a few key players that won’t be playing in this game.

Jacksonville State has 10 players, including 6 starters, that have entered the transfer portal but 5 of those 10 players are listed on the bowl depth chart, which is a good indication that they will play in this game. The offense appears to be intact, as top WR Cam Vaughn is listed on the depth chart and the only offensive transfer that isn’t is a backup offensive lineman. On defense, the transfers not listed on the depth chart are starting edge rusher/LB Reginald Hughes (sack leader), starting safety Zechariah Poyser (#4 tackler and 11 passes defended), backup S Tee Denson, and CB Jabari Mack, who lost his starting spot 6 games ago but led the team with 13 passes defended. Ohio, by the way, is the only team to have not had any players enter the transfer portal.

My math model would favor Ohio by 4.0 points with a total of 53.7 points before accounting for the transfers for Jacksonville State that are not on the depth chart. Losing the team’s leader in sacks (and 2nd in totals tackles for loss) along with two defensive backs that were the top two on the team in passes defended is a significant blow to the defense, which I project at 0.5 yards per play, which is 3.6 points to the side and 3.0 points to the total.

With the transfers factored in, I get Ohio by 7.6 points and 56.7 total points and it’s possible that some of the Jacksonville State players on the depth chart may not play too. Both head coaches have taken other jobs and the offensive coordinators for each team have been named as interim head coach.