Game Analysis

Lean – Notre Dame (-29/29.5)  44   Boston College  10

Notre Dame has the second best offense in the nation, which has been hidden a bit by the tough schedule of defensive teams that they faced early in the season (Miami-Florida and Texas A&M). The Irish averaged 32 points and 6.0 yards per play against the Hurricanes and Aggies, who both rank in the top 8 in compensated yards per play allowed and would allow just 4.2 yppl to an average offense.

Since those tough early tests, the Irish offense has averaged 42 points and 8.1 yppl against 5 teams that would collectively allow 5.7 yppl to an average offense (0.1 yppl better than the national average). In this game, Notre Dame gets their first crack at overwhelming a bad defensive team, as Boston College rates at 1.1 yppl worse than average on defense (6.8 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense). BC has given up 8.5 yppl to UConn and 8.9 yppl to Louisville in the last two weeks and I would project 8.2 yppl for the Irish in this game if the weather were normal.

It’s expected to be windy in Chestnut Hill on Saturday afternoon but that shouldn’t hurt an Irish team with one of the best sets of running backs in the nation going against a soft Boston College defensive front that’s allowed 5.8 yards per rushing play to FBS opponents that would combine to average 4.5 yprp against an average defensive team. BC is projected to average only 4.3 yards per pass play, and their poor rush attack (0.6 yprp worse than average) is projected to average only 3.0 yprp against an Irish defense that’s yielded just 4.1 yprp to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yprp against an average defense.  

My math model would favor Notre Dame by 39.7 points in this game if their starters played the entire game, but if they have a huge lead, it is likely that they pull their starters early, as they did against Purdue and Arkansas earlier this season. In these situations, I cut the predicted margin with starters playing the entire game in half and then use that first-half line to project a full game line, which in this case equates to 34 points.