Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *USC (-14)  38   Northwestern  18

Lincoln Riley’s teams have always been relatively better at home (30-22 ATS) than they’ve been on the road (12-25-3 ATS) and this year’s USC team is one final minute garbage time 75-yard bomb against a backup cornerback versus Michigan State from being a perfect 4-0 ATS at the Coliseum this year and their most recent home game was a decisive 31-13 victory as a small favorite against Michigan.

Riley once again has an elite offense, as the Trojans have averaged 39.8 points and 7.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that are collectively 0.3 yppl better than average defensively and about the same as Northwestern’s defensive rating (0.4 yppl better than average). USC should score around their normal allotment of points and I don’t see Northwestern being able to stay close.

The Wildcats have a worse than average offense that has averaged only 19.7 points per game against FBS opponents (even with 42 against a bad UL Monroe defense). The only games that Northwestern has scored more than 22 points were against horrible defensive teams (ULM and FCS team Western Illinois) and USC has a good defensive unit that’s held opponents to just 22.4 points per game while rating at 0.5 yppl better than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defense).

USC is likely to score 35 points or more while holding Northwestern to 21 points or less, and laying 14 is a good bet based on my math model.

USC is a 1-Star Best Bet at -14 -115 odds or better (Lean at -14.5).