Northwestern @


Sat, Nov 19
Fox Sports 1
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 345
Odds: Purdue -17.5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Lean  – Over (44.5) – PURDUE (-17.5)  36   Northwestern  15

I know it’s going to be windy (19 mph winds with gusts into the 30s) and that Northwestern is without their top two quarterbacks, but I would project 60 points in this game before adjusting for the weather and a third-string quarterback. The weather is only worth 3.3 points and I have adjusted 6 points for the Northwestern quarterback situation.

Purdue’s offense is 0.5 yards per play better than average and would be projected to score 37 points in this game before adjusting for the weather. Northwestern’s defense is just average, and the Wildcats have given up 28 points or more in 7 of their 10 games. One of the exceptions was the 7-21 loss to Ohio State a couple of weeks ago but that game was playing in near hurricane conditions and the expected wind in this game is nowhere near as penal to offenses as it was in that game.

The value towards the over is partially due to an overreaction in Northwestern holding Ohio State to just 21 points in impossible passing conditions but most of the value comes from Purdue’s defense not being as good currently as it has been over the course of the season. The Boilermakers have been just 0.2 yards per play worse than average defensively this season, but they were very good in their first 5 games, yielding just 4.9 yppl to 5 teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. However, their star safety Chris Jefferson left the team for personal reasons after week 5 and the Boilermakers not only don’t defend the pass as well without him but moving their best tackler from linebacker to safety has hurt their run defense too. In 5 games without Jefferson the Boilermakers have given up an average of 6.7 yards per play to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team. I don’t rate that unit quite that poorly, as there is likely some negative variance in those numbers, but there is no doubt that Purdue’s defense is considerably worse without Jefferson.

Purdue has only had 2 games this season with less than 54 total points scored and both of those were against teams with very strong defensive units (Minnesota and Iowa). The wind and a third-string quarterback for Northwestern is not enough to justify such a low total on this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Northwestern
  • Purdue


  • Run Plays 32.3 40.0
  • Run Yards 123.7 212.8
  • YPRP 3.8 5.3


  • Pass Comp 22.9 16.3
  • Pass Att 38.8 27.0
  • Comp % 59.0% 60.5%
  • Pass Yards 242.8 203.3
  • Sacks 2.0 1.6
  • Sack Yards 13.6 10.4
  • Sack % 4.9% 5.5%
  • Pass Plays 40.8 28.6
  • Net Pass Yards 229.2 192.9
  • YPPP 5.6 6.8


  • Total Plays 73.1 68.6
  • Total Yards 352.9 405.7
  • YPPL 4.8 5.9


  • Int 1.2 0.6
  • Int % 3.1% 2.1%
  • Fumbles 1.1 0.7
  • Turnovers 2.3 1.2
  • Points 15.3 28.2
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