Game Analysis

Note: This play was released to subscribers when the line was -14 -115. Toledo is a Lean at more than -14.

Strong Opinion – TOLEDO (-14 -115)  30   Northern Illinois  10

Toledo has been much better at home (4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS) than they’ve been on the road (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) this season. Toledo’s defense has been great regardless of site, allowing just 4.2 yards per play in 7 games against FBS teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense) but the Rockets’ offense has taken off at home, scoring 45 points or more and averaging 7.5 yppl or more in all 4 games as the host. They have faced 4 bad defensive teams at home but their compensated yards per play at home (+1.1 yppl) is much better than their overall offensive rating (+0.1 yppl). My math model did not factor in the difference in performance at home versus on the road, as a 4 game sample is not significant, but it certainly doesn’t hurt us to have Toledo’s confidence at home being high.

Northern Illinois has a defense that’s been 0.1 yppl better than average and I project 428 yards at 5.9 yppl for Toledo in this game without an adjustment for their better relative performance at home.

That should be more than enough offense to pull away from a Huskies’ team that is offensively challenged. NIU rates at 1.4 yppl worse than average offensively (with Holst at QB) and they have averaged just 13.4 points this season (including their game against an FCS team). In 4 games against average or better defensive teams (Maryland, Miss State, San Diego St, and Miami-Ohio) the Huskies have averaged just 9 points and Toledo’s defense is better than the average rating of those 4 good defensive teams that Northern Illinois has faced. My math projects just 200 total yards at 3.5 yppl for the Huskies in this game.

Toledo is a Strong Opinion at -14 -115 odds or better and Lean at -14.5 or more.