Northern Ill @

Kentucky

Sat, Sep 24
ESPN2
4:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 315
Odds: Kentucky -26.5, Total: 54

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (54) – KENTUCKY (-26.5)  37   Northern Illinois  10 (with Lombardi for NIU)

KENTUCKY (-26.5) 37   Northern Illinois  7 (without Lombardi at QB for NIU)

I’m assuming that Rocky Lombardi will be at quarterback for Northern Illinois, although I actually think that it is less than 50% likely that will be the case. I like the under here even if Lombardi is 100%, as the Huskies’ offense is just average on a national scale even with their veteran quarterback and Kentucky’s defense has proven that they can defend even better than average offensive teams. The Wildcats allowed just 16 points on 282 yards at 4.3 yppl to Florida and overall they’ve yielded just 9.7 points per game at 4.5 yppl to 3 teams that rate around average collectively.

The NIU offense would be considerably worse without Lombardi, as backup Ethan Hampton averaged only 6.2 yards on his 20 pass plays against a bad Vanderbilt pass defense even with one of those passes going for 70 yards to a running back. Hampton can’t count on that sort of yards after catch against Kentucky and he managed just 53 yards on his other 19 pass plays last week.

Northern Illinois is bad defensively, particularly against the pass, but Kentucky runs their offense at a very slow pace and will be happy to run the ball when they get a big lead. I’ll lean Under 52 points or more  (Under 51 or more if Lombardi is out).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Northern Ill
  • Kentucky
NILL
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 33.0 32.3
  • Run Yards 155.3 159.0
  • YPRP 4.7 4.9




Pass





  • Pass Comp 17.0 20.7
  • Pass Att 26.3 31.3
  • Comp % 64.6% 66.0%
  • Pass Yards 218.0 283.0
  • Sacks 0.7 1.7
  • Sack Yards 0.3 8.3
  • Sack % 2.5% 5.1%
  • Pass Plays 27.0 33.0
  • Net Pass Yards 217.7 274.7
  • YPPP 8.1 8.3

Total

  • Total Plays 60.0 65.3
  • Total Yards 373.0 433.7
  • YPPL 6.2 6.6

TO


  • Int 0.7 1.0
  • Int % 2.5% 3.2%
  • Fumbles 0.0 0.7
  • Turnovers 0.7 1.7
 
  • Points 32.3 34.3
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