Game Analysis

Lean – Over (63) – Coastal Carolina (-10.5)  41   Northern Illinois  27

Coastal Carolina might be a bit disappointed to be playing in this bowl for a second straight year and the Chanticleers certainly had higher aspirations entering the season. However, quarterback Grayson McCall is an elite quarterback that should tear up the a bad Northern Illinois pass defense when needed – although it may not be needed given how bad the Huskies’ run defense is. McCall completed 73% of his passes and averaged 10.7 yards per pass play (against FBS teams that would allow 7.5 yppp to an average QB) and threw just 3 interceptions all season (only 6 in two seasons). McCall’s +3.2 yppp rating is significantly better than the team’s +1.6 yppp rating (9.3 yppp against teams that would allow 7.7 yppp) because his backups had a horrible -2.2 yppp rating on their 80 pass plays vs FBS teams (McCall missed two games).

Coastal Carolina may not need to throw it much, as their talented collection of runners averages 237 yards at 6.1 yards per rushing play and Northern Illinois allows 229 run yards at 6.3 yprp (to teams that are 0.5 yprp worse collectively running the ball than Coastal Carolina is). Coastal averaged 53.3 points against the 4 worst defensive teams that McCall faced (Kansas, UMass, ULM, and Arkansas State), scoring at least 49 points in each of those games, and NIU’s defense is only 0.1 yppl better than the average defensive rating of those 4 teams. They probably won’t score that many in this game because the pace of Northern Illinois’ offense is slow, and the Chanticleers will likely have at least one fewer possession than normal.

The NIU attack is mediocre on a national scale, as the Huskies have averaged 6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average FBS offense and the Huskies are projected to gain 387 yards at 6.2 yppl against a Coastal Carolina defense that’s been 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average defense).

The huge 1.6 yppp difference between McCall and the team’s pass rating is not in the line, which is why there is value on Coastal Carolina and the over in this game, but December, non-major, bowl favorites of 7 points or more are just 74-124-7 ATS since 1980. I lean with the Over at 64 points or less and I’d lean with Coastal Carolina at -10 or less.